Chicago Business Barometer™ - Slowed To 40.5 In May

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, slowed 4.1 points to 40.5 in May. This was the second consecutive fall, bringing the index to its lowest level since January. The index has now been below 50 for eighteen consecutive months.

The decrease was driven by a fall in New Orders, Order Backlogs and Production. Supplier Deliveries and Employment rose relative to April.

PRODUCTION AND NEW ORDERS DOWN AGAIN

New Orders trimmed 6.0 points, and are now 13.0 points below March’s high of the year.

Production softened 4.0 points to 43.9, falling below the 12-month average for the first time since January.

Order Backlogs fell 8.5 points, matching November’s reading. There has not been a lower reading since May 2024.

Inventories contracted 2.3 points, but remains comfortably above March’s 34.8 reading.

EMPLOYMENT REBOUNDS

Employment rose 8.3 points to 45.9, the highest reading, and largest increase, since December. This was driven by more firms keeping employment levels unchanged rather than reducing employment.

Supplier Deliveries increased 5.3 points.

Prices Paid narrowed 1.5 points to 76.5. This component has been above 70 for four consecutive months. As has been the case since February, no respondents reported lower prices paid in May.

The survey ran from May 1 to May 14.