Chicago Business Barometer™ - Slipped To 44.6 in April

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.0 points to 44.6 in April. This more than reverses March’s 2.1 point rise, but still leaves the index above January’s 39.5 reading. The index has been in contraction for seventeen consecutive months.

The decrease was driven by a pullback in new orders and production, and to a lesser extent supplier deliveries. Order backlogs and employment rose relative to March.

PRODUCTION AND NEW ORDERS DRAG

Production dropped 7.6 points to 47.9, almost fully unwinding March’s rise.

New orders fell 7.0 points, the lowest since December 2024.

Employment inched up 0.4 points to 37.6. This index has been below 40 for eight of the last twelve months. 

Order backlogs progressed 2.3 points.

INVENTORIES RISE ON TARIFF FRONT-LOADING

Supplier deliveries pared 1.4 points. The index has been above 50 for ten of the last twelve months.

Inventories increased 17.0 points, potentially reflecting tariff front-loading. This was the highest level since November 2023, with 31% of respondents reporting larger inventories, up from 12% in March.

Prices paid consolidated 1.3 points to 78.0, the highest level since August 2022. 

The survey ran from April 1 to April 14.