Chicago Business Barometer™ - Held At 40.4 In June

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, fell 0.1 points to 40.4 in June. The index is now 7.2 points below March’s year-to-date high of 47.6 and has now been below 50 for nineteen consecutive months. 

The slight decrease was driven by a fall in Supplier Deliveries, Production, Employment and Order Backlogs. This was almost fully offset by a rise in New Orders.

NEW ORDERS REBOUND. BUT PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT FALL

New orders rebounded 4.1 points, but remain below the year-to-date average. The increase was driven by a lower proportion of respondents reporting fewer new orders compared to May.

Supplier deliveries eased 6.8 points.

Production pared 2.7 points to 41.2. This was the third consecutive decline, with the index now at its lowest since January.

Employment retraced 3.9 points to 42.0, but sees the second highest reading of 2025.

INVENTORIES PULL BACK

Order backlogs softened 1.5 points to the lowest level since May 2020. Only 4% of respondents reported larger backlogs in June, the second smallest percentage on record and the lowest since 1980.

Inventories moderated 8.0 points. 

PRICES PAID HIGHEST SINCE MAY '22

Prices paid climbed 8.3 points to 84.8, the highest level since May 2022. 70% of respondents reported higher prices paid in June, up from 57% in May.

The survey ran from June 1 to June 16.