Chicago Business Barometer™- December Unrevised

The December Chicago Business Barometer™ was unrevised at 36.9, the lowest since May 2024, as a result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation. 

• The Barometer was higher than previously estimated in the first half of the year while the second half of the year – Q3 in particular – was weaker than previously estimated.
• The Barometer has remained below 50 for 13 consecutive months and, excluding November 2023, it has been in contraction territory since September 2022. Q3 showed a faster pace of contraction that extended to Q4, with the Barometer revised lower 1.4 points in Q3 and -0.3 points in Q4. In contrast, Q1 was revised 0.5 points higher to 44.3 and 1.0 point higher in Q2.
• Employment saw the largest downwards revision in December of 2.6 points, followed by Order Backlogs (-1.1 points).
• Supplier Deliveries was also revised lower by 1.0 point.
• Production was revised 1.0 points higher, while New Orders rose a marginal 0.1 points in December.
• Prices Paid remained high, with the Prices Paid Indicator revised up 2.6 points.
• Inventories was revised 1.7 points higher in December.

Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the US Census X-13 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.