NATGAS: Chevron Nears FID on Leviathan Expansion

Nothing to really move the needle in terms of macro headline flow since NY participants started to filter in.

• Prior session lows in TY futures hold on the first retest, with lower crude oil prices helping bulls in recent trade.
• Core global FI curves steeper on the day.
• Unsurprising comments seen from the French right-wing, pointing to the need for fresh elections if the political situation in the country remains “blocked up” after PM Lecornu stepped down this morning.
• OATs meaningfully wider in the EGB space, spread to Bunds ~4.5bp wider on the day, near 86bp, just below year-to-date closing highs of 86.3bp.
• BBG screens show an intraday spike to ~89bp after the initial headlines surrounding Lecornu’s departure crossed, but they may have just been indicative as liquidity thinned out on the headlines, as opposed to real trades.

U.S. President Trump posts the following on Truth Social: "JUST OUT: Good news for the Holiday Season. EARLY PRICES ARE DOWN, WHILE TARIFFS ARE MAKING OUR COUNTRY AN ECONOMIC POWER AGAIN. Also, virtually NO INFLATION, AS STOCK MARKETS CONTINUALLY HIT RECORD HIGHS. THE BEST OF ALL WORLDS FOR THE U.S.A."

• In the FI space, Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of their latest gains. The recent climb appears corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is 128.84, 61.8% of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg.
• Gilt futures continue to trade above their latest lows. Recent weakness strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A stronger resumption of weakness would open 89.94, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.