UK: Chancellor-'Will Set Out Any Necessary Changes' In Spring Statement

Jan-23 12:05

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has confirmed in an interview with Reuters that she will "be setting out any changes that are necessary" in UK fiscal policy in the Spring Statement she will deliver on 26 March. After a spike in UK borrowing costs amid declining fiscal headroom and a sclerotic growth outlook, Reeves has sought to downplay the pressure markets have put on the gov't finances, claiming "Just looking at what's happened year to date, we're in line with our peers to just look at bond yields," Reeves said. On the spike in yields earlier in the month, Reeves said: "It's not a UK phenomenon. It's not a targeting of the UK."

  • One area of policy that does look set to change is the non-domiciled tax status, which the Labour gov't altered in the October 2024 budget.   Natasha Clark at LPC posts on X: "As per reports from Davos, the Chancellor is set to relax some non dom transition arrangements announced in last year's Budget. There'll be an amendment to the finance bill on the "temporary repatriation facility" - not to extend the transition period, but to clarify what people can bring and how much, to the UK - to include ££ and other funds. Meaning they won't be taxed twice. Gov sources say this is a "tweak" not a "reversal"."

Historical bullets

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South

Dec-24 12:02
  • RES 4: 112-02   Low Oct 14
  • RES 3: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger   
  • RES 2: 110-28   50-day EMA  
  • RES 1: 110-03+ 20-day EMA
  • PRICE:‌‌ 108-23 @ 11:59 GMT Dec 24
  • SUP 1: 108-13+ Low Dec 24
  • SUP 2: 108-12+ 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
  • SUP 3: 108-00   1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing   
  • SUP 4: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing

The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish, confirmed by the return lower on December 24th. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 110-03+, the 20-day EMA.       

LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Mfg, Tsy 2Y FRN & 5Y Note Sales

Dec-24 12:01
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • Dec-24 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (-5.9, --)
  • Dec-24 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-14, -10)
  • Dec-24 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (10, --)
  • Dec-24 1130 US Tsy $28B 2Y FRN & $70B 5Y Note auctions

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly buyer

Dec-24 11:53

0NH5 96.10/96.30/96.40 broken c fly, bought for 4.25 in 2k.