US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Challenger To Boost Sensitivity To Jobless Claims Increases

0RH6 98.12/98.37cs, bought for 3.5 in 4k.

• In FX, the primary trend direction in EURUSD is up and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to watch is 1.1690, the 50-day EMA. It has again been pierced, a clear break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear resumption of gains would open 1.1919, the Sep 7 high and bull trigger. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend.
• Short-term bearish conditions in GBPUSD remain in place - for now. Initial key resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. Recent weakness resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. A support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low, has been pierced. A clear breach of this support would open 1.3282, the Aug 6 low.
• A bullish theme remains intact in USDJPY following Monday's strong start to the week. Yesterday’s rally resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.96, the Sep 26 high and a key short-term resistance. This paves the way for a test of the key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 22. Monday’s intraday low at 149.05 is first support.

Today’s Fedspeak might see greater focus considering the continued shutdown-thinned data calendar. We hear from four separate speakers, who have all appeared since the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting but not for the past two weeks. 

• 1000ET – Bostic (non-voter, hawk) at Fisk University (audience Q&A only). He reiterated on Sep 22 that he pencilled in only one rate cut for 2025 before adding on Sep 23 that the Fed definitely needs to be concerned about inflation with more inflation to come. He’d be open to using a range for the inflation target.
• 1005ET – VC Supervision Bowman (voter, dove) welcoming remarks at Community Banking conference (text only). She said Sep 26 that it’s time to act decisively and proactively to protect jobs but that she prefers a gradual approach to rate changes. She prefers the smallest possible balance sheet.
• 1030ET – Gov. Miran (voter, outright dove) in fireside chat at MFA Policy Outlook (moderated Q&A only). He was the September dot looking for 150bp of cuts to 2.75-3.0% by end-2025 and with appropriate rates in “the mid-2 percent area”. He laid out his rationale in a speech on Sep 22, heavily focused on his estimates of the neutral rate: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/miran20250922a.htm
• 1130ET – Kashkari (’26 voter) in conversation on AI and the economy. Speaking a few days after the Sept FOMC decision, he said on Sep 19 that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate and that he’s more confident that tariffs will have a one-time effect on inflation. He is confident that underlying inflation will head down.
• 1605ET – Gov. Miran (voter) at Deutsche Bank macro conference (moderated Q&A only)