US DATA: Challenger Report Shows Little Hiring Appetite [2/2]

Challenger hiring announcements failed to materially bounce in October after a particularly soft September, leaving a cumulative 400k over the two key hiring months for seasonal workers some 40% lower than last year. 

•  Challenger hiring announcements increased 6% Y/Y to 283k in October but that stops a long way short of recovering from a particularly disappointing 117k (-71% Y/Y) in September.
• With Sep-Oct typically the two key months for hiring announcements, capturing seasonal hiring ahead of the holidays, the combined 400k over the two months is 40% lower than in Sep-Oct 2024 and the lowest since 2011.  
• We knew that Amazon was going to account for 250k of the announcements in October (the same as in 2024), leaving little by way of hiring plans elsewhere.
• As discussed yesterday, anecdotal evidence ahead of the report pointed to broader hiring lethargy, with Target for instance usually hiring 100k of seasonal workers at this point of the year but this year only offering additional hours to its current employees. Indeed, Target’s column in today’s report still only showed the same 4.2k as from September’s report.
• From the press release: “It’s possible with rate cuts and a strong showing in November, companies may make a late season push for employees, but at this point, we do not expect a strong seasonal hiring environment in 2025”.
• On that basis, we’d note that the last time there was a meaningful round of hiring announcements in November was back in 2020.