UK DATA: CGNCR GBP7.9bln higher for FY24/25 - will lead into remit revision
- Central government net cash requirement (excluding UK Asset Resolution Ltd and Network Rail) was £21.1 billion in March 2025; this was £7.4 billion less than in March 2024, and brings the total for the FYE March 2025 to £180.5 billion, £7.9 billion more than forecast by the OBR.
- This is what feeds into the remit revision - so a slightly smaller remit revision is likely as this isn't quite as bad as expected (despite the accrual measures such as PSNBex coming in higher this month with an upward revision).
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EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0955 High Mar 18
- PRICE: 1.0832 @ 06:03 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 1.0756 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0617 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
EURUSD has entered a corrective phase and continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend outlook is unchanged - a bull cycle remains in play. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 1.1040, the Oct 4 ‘24 high. First support to watch is 1.0756, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback is allowing this set-up to unwind.
BUND TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 128.83 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 128.27 @ 05:39 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. Resistance remains intact and - for now - gains are considered corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. A recent impulsive sell-off reinforced a bear theme and has signalled scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range.
CHINA: Country Wrap: China’s Oil Demand Near Peak.
- Sinopec’s full-year profit tumbled 16% amid sluggish demand, with China’s oil consumption likely nearing a peak. The country’s biggest refiner’s net income fell to 49 billion yuan ($6.8 billion) in 2024 from 58.3 billion yuan a year earlier, the company said in a filing on Sunday, citing international financial reporting standards. That compared with analysts’ estimate for profit of 56.4 billion yuan. (source: BBG)
- Over 580 major industrial projects, involving a total investment of more than CNY1.1 trillion (USD152 billion), have already been inked in the lead-up period to the Global Investment Promotion Conference, which officially kicks off on March 25 in Shanghai, the director of the Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Office said at a press briefing yesterday. (source: Yicai)
- China’s Hang Seng is down -0.10% in a slow start to the week whilst he CSI 300 is up +0.30%. Shanghai Comp is lower by -0.15% yet the Shenzhen Comp is the big underperformer, falling -1% today.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1780 Per USD; Estimate 7.2510
- Bonds: A quite start to the week with futures doing very little (despite a liquidity withdrawal) and cash bonds virtually unchanged CGB 10YR 1.84%
