US: CEO Confidence Fades But Amnericans Slightly Brighter About Economy

May-30 17:51

The New York Times’ DealBook writes: “Even as consumer confidence wavered in recent quarters, American business leaders found reason for optimism. That C-suite exceptionalism appears to have faded though as President Trump’s trade war and economic slowdown concerns now predominate.

  • “The latest report by the Conference Board and the Business Council shows one of the biggest drops in C.E.O. confidence on record. The closely followed tally recorded that C.E.O. confidence in the second quarter dropped to 34 — (a score below 50 reflects a pessimistic mood) — from 60 in the previous quarter.”
  • Stephanie Guichard at The Conference Board noted: “CEO Confidence collapsed in Q2 2025 after surging in Q1. All components of the Measure weakened into pessimism territory.”
  • CBS noted in a survey yesterday: "Summer begins with Americans' economy ratings continuing to get a bit brighter than they were this winter — though still not good — with their outlook more mixed. But feelings of financial concern and stress are more prevalent than feelings of being secure."
  • CBS adds: "Ratings of the economy remain net-negative overall — this has been the case for years — but lately they have been ticking up off the dips they saw in late winter, February and March."

Figure 1: Measure of CEO Confidence

A line chart shows plunging C.E.O. confidence.

Source: NYT, The Conference Board1

Historical bullets

CAD: USDCAD At Session Lows On Trump-Carney Meetup Prospects

Apr-30 17:47

USDCAD dips to session lows of 1.3788 after US President Trump says that PM Carney will visit the White House within the next week, after Carney - as Trump put it - said "let's make a deal". Yesterday Carney said post-election that he'd speaking to Trump and the two had agreed to meet soon but this adds to the certainty and suggests Trump is positively disposed to a thawing in relations.

  • It's now outperforming most G10 peers, down 0.32% on the day in CAD's favor, and nearing 1.3781 - Apr 21 low (which was the lowest since Oct 2024) and the bear trigger per our tech analyst - beyond there, potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement.

STIR: SOFR Option Update

Apr-30 17:43
  • Block, 10,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.93 put spds, 10.5 ref 95.91
  • -10,000 2QU5 97.25/97.31 call spds 1.5 ref 96.845
  • +3,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.00 call spds 1.75 over 3QU5 96.87/97.25 call spd

US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Put Tree Update

Apr-30 17:42
  • Update, over 33,000 TYN5 108.5/109.5/110.5 put trees ref 112-09.5 to -12.5
  • Additional trade since midday:
  • 12,000 TYM5 110.25/111.5 put spds, 21 ref 112-06.5
  • 1,500 TYM5 109/110 put spds vs. 110.25/111.25 call spds
  • 1,500 TYM5 114/116/118 call flys ref 112-05