OUTLOOK: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - USDZAR Downtrend Intact
- The trend condition in USDZAR remains bearish and recent fresh cycle lows reinforce the bear theme. The pair has breached 16.9512, the Nov 13 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Note that 16.8280, the 1.00 projection of the Sep 4 - Oct 9 - Nov 5 price swing, has also been breached. This opens the 1.236 projection at 16.6508. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 17.1318. A clear break of this hurdle would highlight a potential reversal and expose 17.5787, the Nov 5 high. First resistance is at 16.9656, the 20-day EMA.
- The path of least resistance in USDTRY is unchanged and remains up. The pair has crossed the 42.00 handle, this opens 43.00. A reliable trend support lies at 42.5410, the 20-day EMA.
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US TSY FUTURES: December'25-March'26 Roll Update: Early 5Y Lead
The latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes for December'25 to March'26 outlined below. Percentage complete still in the single digits ahead the "First Notice" date of Friday, November 28. Current roll details:
- TUZ5/TUH6 appr 13,400 from -5.88 to -5.62, -5.88 last; 5% complete
- FVZ5/FVH6 appr 172,500 from -2.75 to -2.25, -2.75 last; 11% complete
- TYZ5/TYH6 appr 29,200 from 1.5 to 2.0, 1.75 last; 12% complete
- UXYZ5/UXYH6 5,000 from 5.25 to 5.5, 5.25 last; 5% complete
- USZ5/USH6 3,600 from 13.0 to 13.75, 13.25 last; 8% complete
- WNZ5/WNH6 appr 3,300 from 9.75 to 10.25, 10.0 last; 6% complete
- Reminder, Dec'25 futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on December 19, 2s and 5s on December 31. Meanwhile, Dec'25 Tsy options will expire this Friday, November 21
ECB: ECB Speak Wrap (Oct 31 – Nov 19) - A Few Tweaks To Hawk/Dove Matrix
The implied probability of another ECB cut this cycle has pulled back since the ECB’s October decision. OIS markets now price just 9bps of easing through September 2026 (vs ~12bps before the October decision). A combination of resilient growth signals and fairly cautious ECBspeak have factored into recent repricing, even with some Governing Council members still cognizant of downside inflation risks in the medium term.
The introduction of the EU’s ETS2 carbon pricing scheme is likely to be delayed by a year to 2028. This is expected to mechanically pull down the ECB’s 2027 inflation projection by ~0.3pp, deepening the expected undershoot of the 2% target, but policymakers have warned against relying too much on these dynamics for calibrating near-term policy.
Taking into account commentary since the October decision, we’ve made a few tweaks to our ECB hawk/dove matrix. See the full report for more
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Calendar Spread
SFIM6 96.70c vs SFIH6 96.55c, sold the June at 4.25 in 5k.
