EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - USDTRY Uptrend Extends
- A bullish outlook in EURHUF remains intact. Price has recently breached resistance at 405.03, the Sep 5 high and the break has strengthened a bullish case. This has opened the bull trigger at 416.89, the Jul 6 high. Key support is unchanged at 394.07, the Sep 8 low. A break would reinstate a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA, at 401.83, is first support.
- Recent EURPLN gains have strengthened a bullish case. Attention is on the first important resistance at 4.7887/8088, the Aug 24 and Jul 27 highs. A clear break of this zone would further strengthen the case for bulls and expose 4.8515, the Jul 12 high. On the downside, key short-term support is at 4.6888, Sep 12 low.
- The uptrend in USDZAR remains intact and the pair traded higher Monday. Price has recently traded above key resistance at 17.3060, Jul 14 high. This break highlights a resumption of the uptrend that started in June 2021 and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 17.9493, the 76.4% of the 2020 - 2021 bear leg, has been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 18.3777 next, the May 19 2020 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 17.4454, the Sep 13 low.
- USDTRY trend conditions remain bullish and the pair continues to appreciate. Price has cleared 18.3633, the Dec 20 2021 high and a key resistance. This opens 18.6000 next. The 20-day EMA, at 18.2603 is the initial firm support to watch.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U2) Outlook Deteriorating
- RES 3: 97.455 - High Mar 18
- RES 2: 97.185/275 - High Apr 5 / 200-dma
- RES 1: 97.040 - High Aug 03
- PRICE: 96.395 @ 15:51 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: 96.275 - Low Aug 25
- SUP 2: 96.208 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 95.663 - Low Jun 16
Aussie 10yr futures slipped further Thursday and have dipped below key support at 96.355, Jul 22 low. This weakens the bull cycle posted since mid-June, opening the gap with the 200-dma on the continuation contract, at 97.275. The bull trigger is 97.040, the Aug 3 high. On the downside, recent weakness suggests scope for a deeper retracement towards the mid-Jun low of 95.663.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Late Dec 2Y Buy
+5,000 TUZ2 104-09.62, buy through 104-09.38 post-time offer at 1549:16ET
USDCAD TECHS: Still Trading Below Tuesday’s High
- RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
- RES 2: 1.3107 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 downleg
- RES 1: 1.3063 High Aug 23
- PRICE: 1.2998 @ 16:37 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: 1.2887 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.2828/2764 Low Aug 17 / 200-dma
- SUP 3: 1.2728 Low Aug 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
USDCAD rallied into the Friday close having found support at the Thursday low, however, the pair remains below Tuesday’s 1.3063 short-term trend high. Near-term trend conditions still appear bullish following the recent strong recovery from 1.2728, the Aug 17 low. A resumption of gains and a break of 1.3063 would open 1.3107 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2887, the 50-day EMA.
