EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - Monitoring EURPLN Resistance
Jun-04 11:02
- EURHUF is unchanged. A bear cycle remains in play and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards 400.00 and 399.03, the Apr 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 406.95, the May 9 high. A break of this level would highlight a potential reversal. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.
- EURPLN is trading higher this week. For now, the cross continues to trade below the April / May highs. The reversal from the May 19 high highlights a potential bearish threat and attention is on key short-term support at 4.2230, the May 15 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose the 4.2000 handle. On the upside, key resistance to watch has been defined at 4.3102, the Apr 16 high. Clearance of this level is required to instead resume the recent uptrend.
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EQUITIES: EU Bank put fly
May-05 11:01
SX7E (19th Sep) 160/155/150p fly, bought for 0.20 in 6k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
May-05 11:00
- On the commodity front, Gold is trading higher today. Recent weakness appears to have been a correction. The yellow metal breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a deeper retracement and open the 50-day EMA, at 3115.11 - a key support. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3500.1, the Apr 22 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level resumes the uptrend.
- In the oil space, a medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Resistance to watch is $64.61, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is $61.94, the 20-day EMA.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Exposed
May-05 10:47
- RES 4: 113-22 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-20+ High MAy 1 and key new-term resistance
- RES 1: 112-01+ High Apr 2
- PRICE: 111-07+ @ 11:36 BST May 5
- SUP 1: 111-02 Low Mar 2 / 50-dma
- SUP 2: 110-30+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
A sharp reversal lower in Treasury futures last week undermines the recent bull cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, and sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-30+. A clear breach of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, the Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.
