EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURPLN Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
Aug-04 10:53
- Trend conditions in EURHUF remain bullish. This week’s climb has resulted in a break of resistance at 389.26, the Jul 7 high. The rally strengthens the current bullish theme and signalled scope for a climb towards 394.22, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jun 12 low. This price point has been pierced, a clear break would pave the way for gains towards 402.45, the Mar 20 high and a key resistance. The trend condition is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective. Support to watch is 382.06, the 20-day EMA.
- EURPLN trend conditions remain bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The bear trigger at 4.4138, the Jul 4 low, has recently been breached and the 4.40 handle has also been tested. An extension lower would open 4.3822, the Aug 28 2020 low. The 50-day EMA, at 4.4679, is the resistance to watch. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 4.5040, the Jul 6 high.
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EUROZONE: Nomura: Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations Sidestep
Jul-05 10:53
In light of the latest ECB consumer inflation expectations data Nomura note that "the continued downward trend in one year ahead inflation expectations is exactly what the ECB will have been looking for, and importantly, longer-term median expectations have not increased, even if they have not continued to decline. The ECB will likely want to see three year ahead expectations fall in future editions of the survey, in order to ensure expectations remain well anchored."
- "The key risk is that longer-term expectations begin to stabilise around this level, above the ECB's target, as we are potentially seeing longer-term U.S. inflation expectations do according to the Michigan survey. That said, it's far too early to draw such a conclusion from these data."
- "It is important to caveat that in our view the ECB is unlikely to take too much from this survey as: (i) it is very lagged and (ii) has a short time-series history having begun only during the pandemic. The ECB, in our view, will pay more close attention to the SPF survey and financial market inflation expectations."
CAD: Making fresh lows against the EUR and USD
Jul-05 10:50
- The CAD is seeing some broader base selling, despite the underpinned Oil, making new low against the EUR and USD.
- USDCAD now trades at its best levels since 15th June, and continuation above 1.3300, opens to 1.3355 High Jun 15.
- Very little in terms of resistance at current prices for EURCAD, with next resistance seen towards 1.45178.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Key Short-Term Resistance In Bund Futures Remains Intact
Jul-05 10:43
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain below last week’s high of 135.00 (Jun 27). Yesterday’s move lower marks an extension of the pullback from 135.00, the Jun 27 low. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 134.14, Monday’s high. A break of 135.00, the Jun 27 high, is required to highlight a reversal.
- Recent gains in Gilt futures remain soft following the recent move lower with price trading below 97.00, the Jun 23 high. The medium-term trend condition is bearish - a continuation lower and a break of 93.88, the Jun 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend. On the upside, a fresh strong recovery would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. 97.00 is the bull trigger, the Jun 23 high. Initial resistance is at 95.65, the 20-day EMA.
