EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Support Remains Intact
Apr-26 10:48
- EURHUF remains in consolidation mode. Recent gains continue to highlight a strengthening bullish theme and suggest that the corrective pullback between Mar 12 - Apr 5 is over. A resumption of gains would open the key resistance and bull trigger at 399.75, the Mar 12 high. Attention is on initial resistance at 395.77, the Apr 2 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear break would be a positive development. On the downside, clearance of 388.34, the Apr 5 low, is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
- EURPLN has recently reversed higher from its April lows and the recovery accelerated on Apr 16. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 4.3268, the Mar 20 high. Note too that the cross is through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach highlights a short-term reversal and signals scope for a climb towards the 4.40 handle. Initial support lies at 4.3098, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 4.2527, the Apr 9 low. The latest pullback appears to be a correction.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call vs call spread trades again
Mar-27 10:48
0RM4 97.87c vs 2RM4 98.00/98.37cs, bought the 1yr for 0.25 in 8k total.
CHINA: NETHERLANDS-Xi To Rutte: Creating Tech Barriers Leads To Confrontation
Mar-27 10:47
(MNI) London - Wires reporting comments from Chinese state media following a meeting between President Xi Jinping and Dutch PM Mark Rutte. Reports Xi as stating that "China is ready to import more high-quality goods from the Netherlands [and] welcomes Dutch companies to invest in China."
- Xi, "Hopes that the Netherlands will provide a fair and transparent business environment for Chinese companies."
- Xi: "Artificially creating technological barriers and cutting off industrial and supply chains will only lead to division and confrontation."
- The Sino-Dutch trading relationship has come under increased global scrutiny since 2023 when the Rutte gov't imposed export restrictions on machinery used to manufacture advanced microchips, citing security concerns. Alongside the US and Japan, the Netherlands is one of three countries in the world that produces such specialised kit, with Dutch firm ASML the largest single supplier globally of high-tech lithography equipment.
- The Dutch gov't finds itself torn between security concerns, but also protecting the interests of ASML, a major employer and contributor to the Dutch tax base. Should China begin to talk about the Netherlands as an unreliable partner it could shift its demand to other producers. ASML has also threatned to "leave" the Netherlands should its expansion be stifled by gov't export regulations.
- However, significant pressure is being applied to the Netherlands by the US and EU in an effort to 'de-risk' its supply chains with regards to China. Any about-turn could lead to a backlash (and scupper Rutte's hopes of taking over as NATO Secretary-General).
EQUITIES: US Equities are helped higher by Europe
Mar-27 10:38
- A new high for the Emini, but still short of Yesterday's high of 5300.50 and its best traded level at 5322.75.
- While US Equities are still off their record levels, European Equities continue to new record and multi year highs.
- Investors will be looking at the 5100.00 level next in SX5E, but better resistance is seen at 5125.00, the November 2000 high.
