EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Pullback Allows An Overbought Condition To Unwind

Mar-06 11:51

EURHUF bullish conditions remain intact and the pullback from yesterday’s high is considered corrective. This is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 390.13, the Mar 5 low. For bulls, the recent breach of resistance at 394.67, the Aug 3 ‘23 high, strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards the 400.00 handle.
Trend conditions in EURPLN are unchanged. A bear threat remains present and sights are on 4.2935, the Dec 13 low and key support. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in September last year. This would open 4.2371, the Feb 14 2020 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4.3405, the 50-day EMA. The key reversal trigger is 4.4124, the Jan 17 high.

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Feb-05 11:51

GBP/USD inches to new daily and pullback lows into NY hours, once again narrowing the gap with key support at the 1.2564 200-dma. The break below 1.2597 today is deemed technically significant and marks the end of the consolidation phase and a range breakout since the turn of the year.
As mentioned across other instruments, volumes are very healthy early Monday, aided by Powell's seemingly hawkish undertones in his 60 Minutes appearance overnight.
Currency futures volumes are no different, with the latest downtick in GBP helping futures to print activity >30% ahead of average for this time of day. Spot drift has dragged prices away from the larger option expiries for the Monday cut: £335mln rolling off at 1.2600 and £1.4bln at 1.2645-50.
BoE's Pill is set to appear later today, however his appearance on Friday may mean new policy messaging is limited, with ISM Services likely a bigger needle mover today.

Feb-05 11:48

In the FI space, Bund futures faced resistance on Friday and the contract is trading below its recent highs. A continuation lower would further undermine the recent bullish theme and expose key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, clearance of last week’s high at 136.29 (Feb 1), is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.
The trend needle in Gilt futures traded sharply lower Friday and have started this week on a bearish note. The move lower has defined a key short-term resistance at 100.62, the Feb 1 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would open 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. A stronger reversal and a break of this support would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

Feb-05 11:44

The mix of Friday's weakness in Euribor futures and OI data points to the following positioning swings:

Whites: Apparent long cover in all contracts outside of what seemed to be short setting in ERH4. The former dominated in net pack OI terms.
Reds: A mix of short setting (ERM5 & Z5) and long cover (ERH5 & U5), with the former dominating in net pack terms.
Greens: Net short setting in all contracts outside of very modest long cover in ERU6. The former dominated in net pack terms.
Blues: Net long cover in all contracts outside of short setting in in ERZ7. The former dominated in net pack terms.
The U.S. labour market report provided the major input on Friday.

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