EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CEEMEA EM Credit Market Wrap
May-14 11:54
| {ZY} CEEMEA EM Credit Market Wrap (14 May) | |||
| Source: Bloomberg data (*CBBT/BGN) | |||
| Metrics | Level | Δ DoD | |
| 5yr UST | 4.10% | -0bp | |
| 10yr UST | 4.47% | 0bp | |
| 5s-10s UST | 36.72 | +0bp | |
| WTI Crude | 63.1 | -0.6 | |
| Gold | 3227 | -23.6 | |
| Copper | 469.1 | 0.2% | |
| iShares EM IOPV | 90.0 | 0.2% | |
| FX | Level | Δ DoD | |
| USDZAR | 18.24 | -0.08 | |
| USDTRY | 38.75 | -0.04 | |
| EURHUF | 404.3 | +0.31 | |
| EURPLN | 4.24 | +0.01 | |
| EURCZK | 24.92 | -0.00 | |
| Sov bonds* | Z-Sprd | Δ DoD | |
| REPHUN 5 1/2 03/26/36 | 219bp | +2bp | |
| POLAND 5 1/8 09/18/34 | 141bp | +1bp | |
| ROMANI 5 3/4 03/24/35 | 368bp | +6bp | |
| TURKEY 6 1/2 01/03/35 | 358bp | -1bp | |
| KAZAKS 4.714 04/09/35 | 129bp | +3bp | |
| UZBEK 6.9 02/28/32 | 323bp | +7bp | |
| UKRAIN 1 3/4 02/01/35 | 1117bp | +40bp | |
| ISRAEL 5 1/2 03/12/34 | 184bp | -2bp | |
| KSA 5 5/8 01/13/35 | 133bp | -4bp | |
| ADGB 5 04/30/34 | 71bp | +1bp | |
| QATAR 4 3/4 05/29/34 | 74bp | -1bp | |
| OMAN 7 3/8 10/28/32 | 154bp | -1bp | |
| BHRAIN 7 1/2 02/12/36 | 323bp | -2bp | |
| SOAF 7.1 11/19/36 | 350bp | -0bp | |
| ANGOL 8 3/4 04/14/32 | 858bp | +9bp | |
| ZAMBIN 5 3/4 06/30/33 | 738bp | N/A | |
| MOZAM 9 09/15/31 | 1147bp | -12bp | |
| NGERIA 10 3/8 12/09/34 | 665bp | +5bp | |
| GHANA 5 07/03/35 | 767bp | -0bp | |
| IVYCST 8.075 04/01/36 | 504bp | -1bp | |
| BENIN 8 3/8 01/23/41 | 517bp | +2bp | |
| SENEGL 6 1/4 05/23/33 | 818bp | -4bp | |
| MOROC 6 1/2 09/08/33 | 199bp | -2bp | |
| EGYPT 7.3 09/30/33 | 610bp | -6bp | |
| KENINT 9 1/2 03/05/36 | 716bp | +5bp | |
| RWANDA 5 1/2 08/09/31 | 499bp | -2bp | |
| Corp bonds* | Z-Sprd | Δ DoD | |
| ESKOM 8.45 08/10/28 | 375bp | +0bp | |
| SASOL 8 3/4 05/03/29 | 633bp | -7bp | |
| SGLSJ 4 1/2 11/16/29 | 481bp | -12bp | |
| GFISJ 6 1/8 05/15/29 | 141bp | -3bp | |
| OCPMR 6 3/4 05/02/34 | 262bp | +0bp | |
| FMCN 8 03/01/33 | 419bp | -2bp | |
| IHS 8 1/4 11/29/31 | 464bp | -1bp | |
| AZURGY 8 1/8 01/23/30 | 496bp | -2bp | |
| SEPLLN 9 1/8 03/21/30 | 657bp | -2bp | |
| ACKAF 8 1/2 09/25/28 | 344bp | +1bp | |
| AEFES 3 3/8 06/29/28 | 366bp | +1bp | |
| SISETI 8 5/8 05/02/32 | 470bp | +1bp | |
| TCELLT 7.45 01/24/30 | 329bp | -1bp | |
| TURKTI 7 3/8 05/20/29 | 324bp | -2bp | |
| ULKER 7 7/8 07/08/31 | 370bp | -2bp | |
| PKNPW 6 01/30/35 | 188bp | +1bp | |
| ROMGAZ 4 3/4 10/07/29 | 287bp | +1bp | |
| MVMHU 6 1/2 03/13/31 | 235bp | +1bp | |
| MLGPW 6 1/8 10/15/29 | 316bp | -1bp | |
| NAVOIM 6.95 10/17/31 | 323bp | +1bp | |
| JSCKSP 6 1/4 03/26/30 | 290bp | -6bp | |
| METINV 7 3/4 10/17/29 | 1033bp | +2bp | |
| ARAGVI 11 1/8 11/20/29 | 758bp | +6bp | |
| ARAMCO 5 1/4 07/17/34 | 135bp | -1bp | |
| MAADEN 5 1/4 02/13/30 | 119bp | -1bp | |
| SABIC 2.15 09/14/30 | 112bp | +2bp | |
| SECO 5.225 02/18/30 | 128bp | -1bp | |
| STCAB 3.89 05/13/29 | 91bp | +0bp | |
| ABDPOC 2 1/2 05/06/31 | 95bp | +0bp | |
| ADNOCM 4 1/2 09/11/34 | 107bp | -1bp | |
| ALDAR 5 1/4 03/25/35 | 121bp | -1bp | |
| DAMACR 7 08/26/28 | 293bp | +0bp | |
| ETISLT 0 7/8 05/17/33 | 84bp | +0bp | |
| EMAAR 3.7 07/06/31 | 116bp | -1bp | |
| MASDAR 5 1/4 07/25/34 | 129bp | +0bp | |
| MUBAUH 5.294 06/04/34 | 125bp | -1bp | |
| TABRED 5.279 03/05/30 | 111bp | -1bp | |
| TAQAUH 4 3/8 10/09/31 | 92bp | -0bp | |
| DUBAEE 3 3/8 03/20/28 | 114bp | +3bp | |
| QPETRO 2 1/4 07/12/31 | 87bp | -1bp | |
| QTELQD 4 5/8 10/10/34 | 104bp | -0bp | |
| BEXBAH 6 1/4 01/29/35 | 211bp | +2bp |
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Historical bullets
GBP: Cable targets the 2025 high
Apr-14 11:53
- Cable is finding some resistance at the 1.3207 level, so far managed a 1.3201 high, this level is not only the April high but also the 2025 high and best traded level since early October.
- The Scandies are still leading in G10, and the SEK and the NOK are printing fresh highs.
- USDSEK made a 9.6053 low (prices are according to Bloomberg) on the 3rd April, its lowest since April 2022.
EQUITIES: Commerzbank Rolling put Option
Apr-14 11:39
CBK (19/06/26) vs (18/12/26) 20p, bought the Dec for 0.90 in 5k.
US TSYS: Gains Led By The Belly, Waller Headlines Today’s Docket
Apr-14 11:14
- Treasuries are firmer across the board, led by the belly, with prospects that recent reciprocal tariff exemptions for electronic items could be short-lived and with Trump still considering semi-conductor tariffs.
- Treasuries underperform most EGBs and Gilts.
- Cash yields are 1.5-7bp lower from Friday’s close, with 5s leading declines and 30s lagging.
- It sees some renewed steepening for 5s30s (currently 76.7bps, +5.0bp) after last week’s wide ranges of 65-95bps with the 65bp seen after tariff pause announcements.
- TYM5 at 110-07 (+ 15+) is within a few ticks of session highs, on more typical overnight volumes of 340k after the huge sessions in recent weeks.
- It has remained within Friday’s range throughout. It maintains a bearish tone, with support at 109-08 (Apr 11 low) after which lies 108-26+ (Fibo retracement of Jan 13- Apr 7 bull cycle), whilst resistance is seen at 111-01+ (20-day EMA).
- Another inflation expectations survey is the sole pick of today’s data before Fed Governor Waller speaks at 1300ET. The latter would likely be more of note after a raft of patient Fedspeak.
- Earnings also increasingly come into focus this week (starting with Goldman Sachs today but picking up from Tuesday).
- Data: NY Fed consumer inflation expectations Mar (1100ET)
- Fedspeak: Waller (1300ET, text + Q&A), Harker (1800ET, text + Q&A), Bostic fireside chat on policy (1940ET) – see STIR bullet for Waller. Harker (retiring in June) and Bostic (non-voter) speaking far after the close.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
