EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CEEMEA EM Credit Market Wrap

• Cable is finding some resistance at the 1.3207 level, so far managed a 1.3201 high, this level is not only the April high but also the 2025 high and best traded level since early October.
• The Scandies are still leading in G10, and the SEK and the NOK are printing fresh highs.
• USDSEK made a 9.6053 low (prices are according to Bloomberg) on the 3rd April, its lowest since April 2022.

CBK (19/06/26) vs (18/12/26) 20p, bought the Dec for 0.90 in 5k.

• Treasuries are firmer across the board, led by the belly, with prospects that recent reciprocal tariff exemptions for electronic items could be short-lived and with Trump still considering semi-conductor tariffs.
• Treasuries underperform most EGBs and Gilts.
• Cash yields are 1.5-7bp lower from Friday’s close, with 5s leading declines and 30s lagging.
• It sees some renewed steepening for 5s30s (currently 76.7bps, +5.0bp) after last week’s wide ranges of 65-95bps with the 65bp seen after tariff pause announcements.
• TYM5 at 110-07 (+ 15+) is within a few ticks of session highs, on more typical overnight volumes of 340k after the huge sessions in recent weeks.
• It has remained within Friday’s range throughout. It maintains a bearish tone, with support at 109-08 (Apr 11 low) after which lies 108-26+ (Fibo retracement of Jan 13- Apr 7 bull cycle), whilst resistance is seen at 111-01+ (20-day EMA).  
• Another inflation expectations survey is the sole pick of today’s data before Fed Governor Waller speaks at 1300ET. The latter would likely be more of note after a raft of patient Fedspeak.
• Earnings also increasingly come into focus this week (starting with Goldman Sachs today but picking up from Tuesday).
• Data: NY Fed consumer inflation expectations Mar (1100ET)
• Fedspeak: Waller (1300ET, text + Q&A), Harker (1800ET, text + Q&A), Bostic fireside chat on policy (1940ET) – see STIR bullet for Waller. Harker (retiring in June) and Bostic (non-voter) speaking far after the close.
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)