EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CEEMEA EM Credit Market Wrap
May-08 15:14
| CEEMEA EM Credit Market Wrap (08 May) | |||
| Source: Bloomberg data (*CBBT/BGN) | |||
| Metrics | Level | Δ DoD | |
| 5yr UST | 3.92% | +6bp | |
| 10yr UST | 4.31% | +4bp | |
| 5s-10s UST | 39.02 | -1bp | |
| WTI Crude | 59.6 | +1.5 | |
| Gold | 3355 | -9.7 | |
| Copper | 457.3 | -0.9% | |
| iShares EM IOPV | 89.6 | 0.0% | |
| FX | Level | Δ DoD | |
| USDZAR | 18.19 | -0.08 | |
| USDTRY | 38.63 | -0.03 | |
| EURHUF | 406.0 | +1.73 | |
| EURPLN | 4.26 | -0.01 | |
| EURCZK | 24.93 | +0.02 | |
| Sov bonds* | Z-Sprd | Δ DoD | |
| REPHUN 5 1/2 03/26/36 | 228bp | -6bp | |
| POLAND 5 1/8 09/18/34 | 145bp | +1bp | |
| ROMANI 5 3/4 03/24/35 | 404bp | +16bp | |
| TURKEY 6 1/2 01/03/35 | 379bp | -4bp | |
| KAZAKS 4.714 04/09/35 | 146bp | -2bp | |
| UZBEK 6.9 02/28/32 | 332bp | -4bp | |
| UKRAIN 1 3/4 02/01/35 | 1186bp | -6bp | |
| ISRAEL 5 1/2 03/12/34 | 200bp | -6bp | |
| KSA 5 5/8 01/13/35 | 146bp | -3bp | |
| ADGB 5 04/30/34 | 78bp | -2bp | |
| QATAR 4 3/4 05/29/34 | 83bp | -4bp | |
| OMAN 7 3/8 10/28/32 | 172bp | -5bp | |
| BHRAIN 7 1/2 02/12/36 | 343bp | -4bp | |
| SOAF 7.1 11/19/36 | 375bp | -4bp | |
| ANGOL 8 3/4 04/14/32 | 1038bp | +2bp | |
| ZAMBIN 5 3/4 06/30/33 | 867bp | N/A | |
| MOZAM 9 09/15/31 | 1285bp | -20bp | |
| NGERIA 10 3/8 12/09/34 | 737bp | -1bp | |
| GHANA 5 07/03/35 | 881bp | -8bp | |
| IVYCST 8.075 04/01/36 | 556bp | -0bp | |
| BENIN 8 3/8 01/23/41 | 557bp | -1bp | |
| SENEGL 6 1/4 05/23/33 | 904bp | -6bp | |
| MOROC 6 1/2 09/08/33 | 224bp | -6bp | |
| EGYPT 7.3 09/30/33 | 687bp | +4bp | |
| KENINT 9 1/2 03/05/36 | 772bp | +1bp | |
| RWANDA 5 1/2 08/09/31 | 605bp | -0bp | |
| Corp bonds* | Z-Sprd | Δ DoD | |
| ESKOM 8.45 08/10/28 | 410bp | -3bp | |
| SASOL 8 3/4 05/03/29 | 692bp | -2bp | |
| SGLSJ 4 1/2 11/16/29 | 522bp | -8bp | |
| GFISJ 6 1/8 05/15/29 | 161bp | -6bp | |
| OCPMR 6 3/4 05/02/34 | 283bp | -5bp | |
| FMCN 8 03/01/33 | 455bp | -6bp | |
| IHS 8 1/4 11/29/31 | 511bp | -6bp | |
| AZURGY 8 1/8 01/23/30 | 584bp | -4bp | |
| SEPLLN 9 1/8 03/21/30 | 720bp | -4bp | |
| ACKAF 8 1/2 09/25/28 | 379bp | -9bp | |
| AEFES 3 3/8 06/29/28 | 395bp | -7bp | |
| SISETI 8 5/8 05/02/32 | 500bp | -5bp | |
| TCELLT 7.45 01/24/30 | 366bp | -6bp | |
| TURKTI 7 3/8 05/20/29 | 363bp | -8bp | |
| ULKER 7 7/8 07/08/31 | 410bp | -12bp | |
| PKNPW 6 01/30/35 | 203bp | -2bp | |
| ROMGAZ 4 3/4 10/07/29 | 300bp | +4bp | |
| MVMHU 6 1/2 03/13/31 | 248bp | -2bp | |
| MLGPW 6 1/8 10/15/29 | 339bp | -8bp | |
| NAVOIM 6.95 10/17/31 | 333bp | -1bp | |
| JSCKSP 6 1/4 03/26/30 | 315bp | -3bp | |
| METINV 7 3/4 10/17/29 | 1049bp | +3bp | |
| ARAGVI 11 1/8 11/20/29 | 774bp | +3bp | |
| ARAMCO 5 1/4 07/17/34 | 145bp | -4bp | |
| MAADEN 5 1/4 02/13/30 | 133bp | -4bp | |
| SABIC 2.15 09/14/30 | 127bp | -4bp | |
| SECO 5.225 02/18/30 | 139bp | -4bp | |
| STCAB 3.89 05/13/29 | 108bp | -5bp | |
| ABDPOC 2 1/2 05/06/31 | 112bp | -6bp | |
| ADNOCM 4 1/2 09/11/34 | 122bp | -4bp | |
| ALDAR 5 1/4 03/25/35 | 138bp | -4bp | |
| DAMACR 7 08/26/28 | 315bp | -3bp | |
| ETISLT 0 7/8 05/17/33 | 98bp | -4bp | |
| EMAAR 3.7 07/06/31 | 132bp | -5bp | |
| MASDAR 5 1/4 07/25/34 | 144bp | -4bp | |
| MUBAUH 5.294 06/04/34 | 134bp | -4bp | |
| TABRED 5.279 03/05/30 | 126bp | -7bp | |
| TAQAUH 4 3/8 10/09/31 | 104bp | -6bp | |
| DUBAEE 3 3/8 03/20/28 | 128bp | -5bp | |
| QPETRO 2 1/4 07/12/31 | 98bp | -7bp | |
| QTELQD 4 5/8 10/10/34 | 113bp | -4bp | |
| BEXBAH 6 1/4 01/29/35 | 226bp | -3bp |
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LOOK AHEAD: Adding Chicago Fed Goolsbee to Today's Calendar
Apr-08 15:12
- Adding Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee to today schedule, Goolsbee will be interviewed on Illinois Public Media "The 21st Show" at 1206ET.
CHINA: USD/CNH Prints a New High on Fix, Fading Equity Rally
Apr-08 15:11
- USD/CNH continues to press higher, with the latest leg higher coming from the turn off highs for equities (itself triggered by the USTR's Greer stating that tariff exemptions will not come through in the near-term) on top of the building expectations for a prolonged trade spat between the US and China who, at present, are placing the most punitive tariffs on each other
- Market moves follow the push higher for the USD/CNY midpoint fix overnight - at 7.2038, the CFETS fix was the highest since Sept'23 and not far off the highest fix on record from late 2022 at 7.2555. The higher fix is a clear signal that the authorities are yet to meaningfully use the counter-cyclical factor rebuff local currency weakness stemming from the Liberation Day announcements last week - which would be a focus on any prolonged weakness for CNY.
- Regional partnerships (or lack thereof) outside of the US remain a big focus, and the call with the EU warning against diverted trade to Europe resulting in product dumping was compounded by comments from the South Korean President, stating that South Korea will not band together with China and Japan to combat Trump's tariffs.
- Goldman Sachs today see selling of USD assets as a potential option for China to defend the currency ahead, and market instability would be a trigger given their focus on maintaining market order. Their latest estimates have USTs accounting for ~40% of official reserves, or $1.1trl.
US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Off Morning Highs, No Near Term Exemptions
Apr-08 15:05
- Stocks have bounced amid hopes of progress on US tariff negotiations early Tuesday, still off last week's levels prior to Pres Trump's sweeping tariff announcement. Indexes pared gains at midmorning after Pres Trump said he would not do tariff exemptions in the near term.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 1000.21 points (2.63%) at 37,814.14 (39,426.60 high), S&P E-Minis up 142 points (2.79%) at 5078.5 (5,305.25 high), Nasdaq up 513.8 points (3.3%) at 15551.09 (16,316.16 high).
- Information Technology and Financial sectors outperformed in the first half, chip stocks and hardware makers buoyed the Tech sector: Palantir Technologies +9.75%, Western Digital +9.58%, Broadcom +8.99%, Arista Networks +7.86% and NVIDIA +7.53%.
- Banks led gainers in the Financial sector: JPMorgan Chase +5.60%, Citigroup +5.59%, Capital One Financial +5.41%, Charles Schwab +5.38% and Discover Financial Services +5.36%.
- Reminder, banks kick off the latest earnings cycle this Friday with Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley reporting.
- On the flipside, Materials and Energy sectors underperformed in the first half, Albemarle -1.58%, International Paper -0.32% weighed on the Materials sector while oil and gas shares hampered gains in the Energy sector: APA Corp -0.53%, EOG Resources +0.12%, Occidental Petroleum +0.59%, Devon Energy +0.59% and ConocoPhillips +0.77%.
