EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CEEMEA EM Credit Market Update close

Aug-29 15:04

CEEMEA EM Credit Market Update close

  • In Rates, UST 10Y +2bp at 4.22% and 5s/10s +1bp at 52.
  • A swath of economic data in the US was broadly in line with expectations, with no significant outliers. Credit spread moves into month end were minimal, a few bps either way for both corporates and sovereigns. In terms of news flow, We Soda reported  a steady set of Q2 25 results, with volume trends and EBITDA reassuring while FCF conversion was solid. Integration of the US business seems to be going well too, see link for full note: https://mni.marketnews.com/427DDyq . Petra diamonds announced that that have gained more than 99% approval from note holders for a restructuring and plan to have this implemented in Q4 25. 
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Historical bullets

BOC'S ROGERS SAYS BALANCE SHEET PLANS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED

Jul-30 15:00
  • BOC'S ROGERS SAYS BALANCE SHEET PLANS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED
  • BOC DOESN'T WANT A TARIFF PROBLEM TO BECOME INFLATION PROBLEM

TARIFFS: Bessent Again Suggests Deals Can Be Negotiated Post Aug 1

Jul-30 14:57

"*BESSENT: CAN KEEP NEGOTIATING ON TRADE PAST AUG. 1 IF NO DEALS" Bloomberg

Recall Trump on Truth earlier today: "THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE — IT STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED. A BIG DAY FOR AMERICA!!!""

BOC: Macklem: Situation Hasn't Changed That Much Since Last Meeting

Jul-30 14:57

Asked about whether the BoC thinks there is a need to cut rates later this year in its "current tariff" MPR scenario, Macklem doesn't give much away, repeating the language in the rate decision statement. 

  • "We're going to take our decisions one decision at a time, and our future decisions are going to depend what happens in the future."
  • "I think the first message is, the situation hasn't changed that much since our last decision. We continue to proceed carefully. Given the unusual amount of uncertainty, we're continuing to put more weight on the risks, and we're ready to respond to new information."
  • "The second thing I would say is we have been very clear about what we're watching most closely, what we're particularly focused on. And those are the four things I outlined. We're looking at how much are US tariffs impacting our exports? How much is the weakness in exports spilling over into business investment, into employment and into household spending. How quickly, you know, how big are those direct costs? How quickly are those getting passed through to consumer prices, and what's happening with inflation expectations?"
  • "And then the other thing we've said is that, you know, looking ahead, if the weakness in the economy creates further downward pressure on inflation, and the those upward pressures from from tariffs and disrupt trade disruption are contained, there could be a need for a further cut in our interest rate."