EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CEEMEA Credit secondary market update

• In FX, EURUSD continues to trade below last week’s highs. Attention is on a bullish candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0435, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
• GBPUSD remains below the Feb 5 high. The pair has recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal.  
• A bearish theme in
• USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. 151.06, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 149.69, the Dec 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at 154.70, the 50-day EMA. Note that the pair has entered oversold territory. A recovery would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind.

SFIM5 95.95/96.05/96.15/96.25c condor, bought for 2.5 in 12.5k.

• ERK5/ERM5 98.0625/98.3125cs spread, bought for 0.25 in 4k.
• ERK5/ERM5 98.0625c calendar, bought for 0.75 in 10k.