TARIFFS: CEA's Miran-Surprised If Tariffs Don't Change; Will Be Deal w/China

Speaking on CNBC, Ontario Premier Doug Ford says "We would take tariffs to zero if Trump ended his tariff war. And we told him this". Adds that he wants to see Canada exporting more critical minerals to the United States. Ford: 'Lets get back to a USCA (US-Canada) deal, not a USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada) deal'. 

• During the interview, Ford refuses to be drawn on the federal election, neither endorsing opposition Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) leader Pierre Poilievre nor PM Mark Carney's Liberals. Ford hails from the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, which ostensibly is ideologically linked to the CPC.

• FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
  • Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $112B
  • Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $264B
• Earlier Repo Reference Rates
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.39% (-0.02), volume: $2.589T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.35% (-0.01), volume: $972B
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.35% (-0.01), volume: $936B
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

Goldman Sachs note that their “economists' revised tariff baseline complicates the outlook for rates given the opposing impulses on growth and inflation”.

• They ultimately expect the “growth downside to dominate, resulting in lower yields and a steeper curve this year. We have revised our end of ‘25 2-Year and 10-Year yield forecasts to 3.30% and 4.00%, from 3.95% and 4.35%, respectively”.