BOE: CCBS Conference due to begin at 9:45BST

Jun-25 08:38
  • Today and tomorrow the Bank of England will host its CCBS Conference with the title of "Transforming monetary policy – How should we think about uncertainty and risks?" The main gist of the conference will be following on from the Bernanke review and will provide external perspectives to the BOE on how other central banks produce their forecasting materials and communications.
  • More importantly, it will likely provide updates on how the BOE has progressed with the process of making changes to its forecasting processes and models and in that sense it won't just be the MPC members speaking that we will be paying attention to through the conference.
  • Opening remarks are due from Deputy Governor Lombardelli and CCBS Director John Power at 9:45BST.
  • Chief Economist Pill chairs the keynote at 10:00BST on conditioning assumptions and monpol comms with MIT Professor Athanasios Orphanides.
  • There is then a talk on forecast accuracy and efficiency at the BOE at 10:45BST and on CB modelling an forecasting using AI (from a Bank of Spain Economist).
  • After lunch at 13:30BST there is another keynote on Riksbank communications with First Deputy Governor Breman and chaired by BOE Deputy Governor Lombardelli and then a talk on modelling and forecast from a Norges Bank Senior Advisor.
  • From 15:30 onwards there is a panel on best practice in forecasting for monpol purposes before a talk from the BOE's Lead Economic Analyst for Monetary Analysis Sumer Singh on DSGE modelling.
  • The agenda for tomorrow and the rest of the conference is here.

Historical bullets

SWAPS: German ASWs Lower After Tariff Relief

May-26 08:31

German ASWs move lower this morning, on relief stemming from President Trump’s delay of the 50% EU tariffs.

  • Spreads vs. 3-month Euribor are ~1.3bp lower across the curve, with essentially all of the widening that followed Trump’s initial Friday outlining of the tariff on the EU unwound.
  • This suggests that the market is viewing a move back to the pre-Trump social media comment norms as the likely outcome, given the “very good” talks held over the weekend and Trump’s recent history of watering down tariff threats.

BOBL: Another Block In Futures

May-26 08:24

Another block trade lodged in Bobl futures, 3,480 lots blocked at 118.840, although prevailing quotes point to a buyer, price action would suggest it was a seller once again. DV01 ~EUR216K.

US TSYS: Lower On EU Tariff Delay, Cash Closed, Futures Volume Boosted By Rolls

May-26 08:21

President Trump’s EU tariff delay pushed TY futures through Friday’s lows in early Asia trade, with the contract in a holding pattern since then, last -0-08 at 109-26+ vs. session lows of 109-24+.

  • Initial support of note at the May 22 low (109-13), with bears remaining in technical control despite Friday’s rally.
  • A reminder that cash Tsys are closed for the Memorial Day holiday and futures will close early (13:00 NY/18:00 London).
  • Roll activity is boosting volumes, latest estimated roll completion updates below:
  • TU: 55.4%
  • FV: 54.1%
  • TY: 55.5%
  • UXY: 43.6%
  • US: 57.5%
  • WN: 55.5%