TURKEY: CBRT Raises Year-End Inflation Forecast to 31-33% From 25-29%
Nov-07 07:59
- "TURKEY CENBANK SEES YEAR-END CPI 31%-33%; SAW 25%-29%" - BBG
- "TURKEY CENBANK SEES END-2026 CPI 13%-19%; SAW 13%-19%"
That is a slightly larger upward revision that was anticipated, but puts the central bank's year-end forecast more inline with market expectations. As expected, the end-2025 and end-2026 interim targets remain unchanged at 24% and 16%.
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GILTS: Bull Flattening, Fiscal Situation Not Quite As Bad As Feared
Oct-08 07:53
Gilts firm alongside core global FI peers, with German data and some optimism around the French political situation providing wider support.
- As we noted earlier, errors in the ONS PSNB data mean that the UK’s fiscal situation is slightly more favourable than was previously envisaged, which has probably driven some gilt curve flattening.
- 10-Year gilts underperform vs. Bunds, with the spread 1bp wider on the day.
- Futures +26 at 90.80.
- Bears remain in technical control, initial support and resistance is located at 90.26 & 91.08, respectively.
- Yields flat to 1.5bp lower, 2s10s ~5bp off September closing lows, while 5s30s is ~2bp off its September closing low.
- Comments from BoE chief economist Pill are due this afternoon.
- Elsewhere, the DMO will come to market with a GBP5bln sale of the new 4.00% May-29 gilt.
EGB OPTIONS: Schatz Broken Put Condor
Oct-08 07:45
DUX5 107.10/107.00/106.90/106.70 broken p condor, sold at 5 in 5k.
OAT: Further Spread Tightening On Latest Headlines
Oct-08 07:43
OAT/Bunds tightens by a further 1bp as outgoing PM Lecornu points to a “shared will to have a budget by the end of the year”.
- This builds on the previously outlined optimism re: increased potential for a deal between Lecornu and the political left, which we detailed in a recent bullet.
