TURKEY: CBRT Change Framework for Medium-Term Target Forecast Communication
It is unsurprising that the CBRT left its end-2025 inflation forecast unchanged at 24% - but the central bank’s forecast range for end-2025 sits higher at 25-29%. New guidance from the CBRT indicates that the single-point projections will act as more of a target than a forecast, explaining the discrepancy between the two.
- CBRT: “Interim targets will be maintained unless there are exceptional circumstances. [They are] the inflation levels that CBRT commits to achieving in the short term”
- "Interim targets will serve as a reference for determining the endogenous monetary policy path, ensuring that inflation converges to the interim targets within the control horizon."
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SONIA OPTIONS: SFIZ5 96.25/96.05/95.85 Put Fly Lifted
SFIZ5 96.25/96.05/95.85 put fly paper paid 3.25 on 5.5K. Was also lifted on 5.5K yesterday.
US TSY FUTURES: FV/US Flattener Blocked
Latest block trades lodged at 08:36:12 London/03:36:12 NY:
- FVU5 7.9K lots blocked 108-03.25, looks like a seller.
- USU5 2.5K lots blocked at 112-25, looks like a buyer.
- DV01 ~$340K.
NOK: Early Underperformance Fades; Jul 2 High Important Resistance In EURNOK
Early NOK underperformance has faded a little, with yesterday’s 11.8792 high containing topside in EURNOK for now. Through July, the cross has consolidated the ~4% rise seen following Norges Bank’s surprise 25bp cut on June 19. This has allowed an overbought condition to unwind, providing a more favourable technical backdrop for those expecting NOK weakness to continue. Initial resistance is the July 2 high at 11.9156, clearance of which would expose the psychological 12.0000 handle.
- Our commodities team highlight that oil is lower on Tuesday, having begun its reversal on Monday as Trump threats towards Russian sanctions were offered a 50-day deadline – easing any fears of short-term disruption.
- Note that this week’s Norwegian macro calendar is very light, leaving cross-asset dynamics at the fore for NOK FX and rates.
