CBR: CBR Cuts Rates 50bps as Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
Oct-24 10:40
Central Bank of Russia cuts rates by 50bps to 16.50% vs. Exp. 16.00% (Prev. 17.00%).
The Bank note in their policy statement that:
- Inflation expectation remain high, but in 2027 and beyond, annual inflation will stay on target. Inflation is to decline to 4.0-5.0%, and further key rate decisions will be made depending on the sustainability of disinflation.
- They note that the upward revision of the 2026 forecast is associated with one-off proinflationary factors, and in the baseline scenario, this also implies an average key rate in the range of 13.00-15.00% and, as such, a long period of tight monetary policy.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Sep-24 10:29
- In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Last week's gains resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1923, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is 1.1678. the 50-day EMA.
- A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this leaves support at 1.3458 exposed, a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
- USDJPY is holding onto the bulk of its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.
AUD: A fresh intraday high for the AUDNZD
Sep-24 10:26
- AUDNZD is making an attempt at the previous intraday high of 1.1317, and as noted last Week and this Week it is becoming an interesting Chart.
- The combination of the poor Growth Data out of New Zealand last and the Australia CPI beat overnight are helping the upside continuation.
- The Next resistance is at circa 1.1348 next, and a clear break through the latter opens to 1.1408, then 1.1448 (retracement level) and finally the big Psychological 1.1500, although most will be pointing out that 1.1491 is the 2022 high and highest printed level since October 2013.
- Given that the USDJPY is testing the immediate resistance of 148.38 we have pointed out this Morning, AUDJPY will be eyed for potential extension to 98.426, the September high, but also the best level reached since January.
FOREX: USD Outperforms, AUDNZD Surges to Fresh Cycle High Above 1.13
Sep-24 10:26
- Over the course of the European morning, the US Dollar has been trading with a supportive tone. Despite remaining within the post-Fed ranges, the likes of EUR and GBP have extended session declines to around 0.5% as we approach the NY crossover. For EURUSD, the solid amount of option expiries between 1.1750/1.18 appears to have capped the overnight price action, with the pair slowly edging back below 1.1760 at typing.
- GBPUSD has traded through the 50-day EMA and this leaves support at 1.3458 exposed, a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat.
- Firmer-than-expected monthly CPI data in Australia is prompting some Aussie outperformance, with AUDUSD currently up 0.15% and bucking the stronger dollar theme. Market participants have been more focussed on AUDNZD, which has extended its impressive rally on Wednesday to trade to a fresh cycle high of 1.1317. Resistance remains scant on the chart until 1.1491, the 2022 high. It is also worth noting that the NZ government has appointed Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman to be the new RBNZ governor.
- The low yielders have been under pressure this morning, with USDJPY notably rising above the post Fed highs of 148.38. Uncertainty regarding Japanese politics and the upcoming LDP leadership election may be playing its part here, while moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Furthermore, the impressive grind higher for the likes of EURJPY and CHFJPY may be bolstering the bearish yen theme.
- US new home sales is the main data point later today, before Thursday’s SNB decision and US jobless claims data.
