EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CBQ Finance: FV for $ 5Y
Sep-03 07:21
(COMQAT; A3/A-/A)
IPT @ T+125bp FV @ T+90bp
- We sketch our FV considerations at z+125bp or T+90bp. Our screen feeds show the seasoned COMQAT Mar29s at z+112bp, giving approx. 13bp pick up for the curve extension. To gain some perspective, we look at spread moves over the summer to last CoB, noting that spreads overall chart some 5bp tighter (see chart below).
- For comparables, we look at recently issued $ 5Y from peers, including higher rated, recently launched Qatar National Bank (QNBK; Aa3/A+/A+) Jul30s, indicatively at approx. z+100bp.
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GILTS: A slightly lower Open versus the Calls
Aug-04 07:19
- Gilt saw a slightly lower open vs the calls, this was driven by the tick lower in EGBs on the higher Equity Cash Open.
- Gilt futures was expected to somewhat outperforms, but it is so far sitting flat against the German 10yr on the spread.
- Respective initial support and resistance, stand at 91.86 20-day EMA , and 92.69 (Friday's high).
CHF: The Swissy extends losses, SMI is down some 2%
Aug-04 07:11
- USDCHF takes another small leg higher, a function of the Fall in the Swiss Index, SMI opened some 2% lower after coming back from a holiday, the Index has caught up following the Swiss tariff announcement.
- As noted earlier, while the CHF is the worst performer in G10 against the Dollar, USDCHF would need a rally all the way to 0.8161 to reverse Friday's NFP sell Off, the cross could now be eyeing a test to the 0.8100 handle.
USDCAD TECHS: Slips Sharply on USD Downdraft
Aug-04 07:07
- RES 4: 1.4111 Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 1.3775 @ 08:06 BST Aug 4
- SUP 1: 1.3716/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
A short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3739 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signaling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3920 next, the May 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3716, the 20-day EMA.
