UK DATA: CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020
Jul-25 10:07
UK CBI Order Books Balance fell more than expected printing -32 (vs -20 consensus, -18 prior) in July, again remaining below the long run average of -13%.
- Expectations for average selling price for next three months softened to 2 (from 20 in June) - making it the lowest reading since December 2020, and below the long term average of 7 for first time since December 2023.
- This drop in average selling price expectations (if sustained in the coming months) will be welcomed by the MPC. One of the concerns recently has been that core goods disinflation will soon come to an end. If this is not the case, services inflation may not need to be as low as previously expected to keep inflation around target levels. However, there remain upside risks from supply chain and shipping disruptions.
- Survey conducted between 25 June and 12 July, with 257 manufacturing firms responding.
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US: SOFR FIX - 25/06/24
Jun-25 10:04
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 5.34594 0.00244
- 3M 5.33939 -0.00117
- 6M 5.26830 -0.00306
- 12M 5.04090 -0.00372
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Remains Intact
Jun-25 10:01
- In the equity space, the uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5594.66 next, the 2.618 projection of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 5458.51, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish. A corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a pullback from the May high. Recent weakness has seen price breach 4988.00, Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement and has exposed 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support. The recovery from the Jun 14 low is potentially an early bullish signal. Resistance to watch is at 5039.84, 61.8% of May 16-Jun 14 sell-off.
EGB SYNDICATION: Republic of Finland 10y USD: Final terms
Jun-25 09:55
- Size: USD1bln (the bottom of the EUSD1-2bln range MNI had expected)
- Books in excess of USD1.1bln (inc JLM interest of USD50mln)
- Spread set earlier at SOFR MS+55bps (~CT10+15.8bps). In line with yesterday's IPT.
- Maturity: 02 July 2034
- Settlement: 02 July 2024 (T+5)
- Coupon: Fixed, S/A, 30/360
- Bookrunners: BNP Paribas / Danske Bank / HSBC / Société Générale
- ISIN: TBC
- EMEA/Asia books to close at 11:30 BST / 12:30 CET. Americas books close at 08.30ET
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