EMISSIONS: CBAM 2025 Q2 Reporting Deadline Arrives

• Another gilt auction where the LAP (lowest accepted price) is below the pre-auction mid-price.
• This follows two soft auctions last week. There was a little blip lower visible on the gilt futures chart, but only of 5 ticks or so which was almost immediately retraced. We are broadly trading at pre-bidding deadline prevailing levels now.

WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.60. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high. Gold traded lower Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from yesterday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.

• WTI Crude up $0.1 or +0.15% at $65.19
• Natural Gas down $0.06 or -1.68% at $3.398
• Gold spot up $35.68 or +1.08% at $3338.89
• Copper up $7.1 or +1.4% at $514.95
• Silver up $0.24 or +0.65% at $36.3558
• Platinum down $24.3 or -1.79% at $1335.07

Trend signals in Eurostoxx 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low appears to be a reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a breach of 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, would reinstate a bearish theme. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has started this week on a firm note. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, the Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5964.66.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 501.06 pts or -1.24% at 39986.33 and the TOPIX ended 20.77 pts lower or -0.73% at 2832.07.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 51.29 pts or -0.21% at 23858.68, FTSE 100 lower by 3.5 pts or -0.04% at 8757.49, CAC 40 down 24.02 pts or -0.31% at 7641.58 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 9.66 pts or -0.18% at 5293.21.
• Dow Jones mini down 34 pts or -0.08% at 44362, S&P 500 mini down 10.5 pts or -0.17% at 6243.5, NASDAQ mini down 50 pts or -0.22% at 22844.5.