US TSYS: Cash Open
Jul-10 00:11
TYU5 is trading 111-10, up 0-01+ from its close.
- The US 2-year yield opens around 3.847%, a little higher from its close.
- The US 10-year yield opens around 4.336%, a little higher from its close.
- MNI US DATA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Gaining Traction As Rates Dip. The MBA mortgage applications market composite index rose 9.4% W/W in the week of July 4 (2.7% prior), the biggest increase in a month to the highest level in 13 weeks (all on a seasonally-adjusted basis). Gains were more or less equally attributable to purchases (+9.4%) and refinancing's (+9.2%). While refis hit a 12-week high, this was the highest purchases index since February 2023.
- (Bloomberg) -- “Treasuries posted their first gain in a week Wednesday, with futures ending near session highs after the monthly 10-year note auction was awarded at a richer-than-expected yield.”
- The 10-year yield has topped out just above the 4.40% area, giving the bulls some reprieve. No clear direction though has seen the 10-year chop around in a wider 4.10% - 4.60% range for most of the year, with the 4.40% area being the pivot. A sustained close back above the 4.45% area could see more of the longs pared back but while this area holds they should be happy to stick with their position looking for a move back to the lower end of the range.
- Data/Events: Initial Jobless Claims, US To Sell $22 Bln 30-year Bond
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Cash Open
Jun-10 00:02
TYU5 is trading 110-05, unchanged from its close.
- The US 2-year yield opens around 4.0075%, unchanged from its close.
- The US 10-year yield opens around 4.478%, unchanged from its close.
- MNI US-CHINA: Bloomberg reports: "US-China trade talks in London will continue tomorrow”, according to a person familiar with the talks. Talks to resume at 10am in London" [0500ET]. Today's meeting began just after 1pm local time (0800ET), though there were basically no headlines emerging from the talks themselves. Little market reaction to the news that talks would continue - an extension into Tuesday was seen as a distinct possibility.
- Bloomberg - “The $119 billion in Treasury refunding that starts Tuesday and concludes Thursday is another factor that can push 10-year yields above the 4.50% threshold as investors prepare for the coupon issuance.”
- The 10-year yield held its support around the 4.35% area last week. While this level holds focus will remain on potentially extending higher, CPI tomorrow will be a very important input.
- Data/Events: NFIB Small Business Optimism
US STOCKS: The Grind Higher Continues
Jun-10 00:00
The ESM5 Overnight range was 5995.25 - 6027.75, Asia is currently trading around 6013. US stocks continue to defy gravity and remain supported on any dips, they open slightly higher in early Asian trading.
- (Bloomberg) - “After a tentative start Monday morning, US stocks are continuing the rise toward an all-time high that Friday’s jobs data made possible. Even so, equity risk remains skewed to the downside because the details of that report demonstrated that the US economy is slowing more than investors seem to appreciate.”
- Bloomberg - “ The positive feedback loop stemming from falling volatility means a melt-up is likely into next Friday’s June option expiration, barring the outcome of a few notable risk events later this week.”
- Overnight decent demand saw the S&P close back above the 6000 area as it begins to eye the all time highs.
- Momentum type funds and share buybacks have kept the market well supported as an underweight market has been forced to reenter. Share buybacks are set to enter their blackout period in the middle of June, will this signal the potential for a pullback ?
In the short-term stocks look overbought, this however has not stopped the grind higher. The first buy-zone is back towards the 5600/5700 area where demand could be expected.
Fig 1: SPX Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
GOLD: Lower USD Drives Gold Higher, Silver Continues To Rally
Jun-09 23:49
Gold prices were slightly higher as the US dollar fell (USD BBDXY -0.2%) and US yields were lower. Bullion rose 0.5% on Monday to $3325.63/oz to be up just over a percent this month. It reached a high of $3338.19 before moderating somewhat. It has started today’s trading slightly higher at $3325.8.
- Gold’s bullish theme remains with medium-term trend signals bullish. Initial resistance is at $3403.5, 5 June high, with the bull trigger at $3500.1. Monday’s low of $3293.64 held above initial support is at $3240.0, 50-day EMA.
- Silver continued climbing higher posting a 2.2% increase to $36.76 to be up 11.5% in June. It reached a high of $36.89, above initial resistance at $36.71 opening up $36.99. Silver is currently slightly higher at $36.79. Last week the metal rose above the key bull trigger marking an important medium-term bullish development.
- Equities finished little changed with the S&P up 0.1% but Euro stoxx down 0.2%. The S&P e-mini is currently up 0.1%. Oil and copper prices rose another percent.
