US TSYS: Cash Open
Apr-30 00:21
TYM5 is trading 112-07, up 0-02 from its close.
- The US 10-year yield has opened in Asia around 4.16%, down 0.01 from its close.
- “The trade deficit widened to a record in March, and consumer spending slowed, contributing to the GDP growth slowdown. Any demand pulled forward ahead of tariffs will dampen growth in subsequent quarters, posing downside risk for the second half of this year.”(per BBG)
- MNI US Economist - The monthly PCE report should offer a timely update on consumer spending momentum heading into Q2. Its inflation components are expected to show a material moderation in core PCE to a ‘low’ rounded 0.1% M/M after a 0.365% M/M in February that stands a good chance of being revised up to the cusp of 0.4-0.5% M/M (making a March read-through from the earlier quarterly data more challenging).
- The 10-year Yield, has put in a lower high around 4.40% and has broken through the recent support around 4.25%. The next support is towards the 4.10% area.
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US TSYS: Cash Bonds Richer To Start The Week
Mar-31 00:17
TYM5 is 111-17+, +0-11 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
- According to MNI's technicals team, Jun'25 10Y futures have breached initial technical resistance at 110-26 (Mar 25 high). The medium-term trend condition is bullish, the first key resistance is located at 111-17+, the Mar 20 high.
- A strong risk-off tone has extended into today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of this week's Trump Tariff "Liberation Day" rollout on April 2, not to mention Friday's employment data for March.
- Cash US tsys are 5-6bps richer across benchmarks, with a slight steepening bias, as concern over the health of the US economy fuels demand for haven assets.
- "US Treasuries have outperformed stocks this quarter, heading for a more than 2% gain, while the equity benchmark S&P 500 fell about 5%. It marks the first time since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 that stocks fell, and bonds rose in a three-month period." (per BBG)
AUSSIE BONDS: Solid Absorption of May-28 Supply With More Demand Present
Mar-31 00:11
The latest round of ACGB May-28 supply sees the weighted average yield print 1.15bps through prevailing mids (per Yieldbroker), extending the recent trend of firm pricing at ACGB auctions.
- Moreover, the cover ratio jumped to a robust 4.4250x from 3.5400x at the previous outing.
- As highlighted in the preview, the outright yield was 15-20bps higher than the previous but around 55bps lower than the cycle peak in early November last year.
- Additionally, market expectations for RBA easing in 2025 have become more aggressive ahead of tomorrow’s RBA Policy Decision. While a 25bp rate cut in April is given only a 5% probability, a cumulative 70bps of easing is priced by year-end.
- Also on the positive side, it's important to note that the May-28 bond was included in the YM basket and that sentiment towards global bonds has improved recently.
- There has been no notable movement in the cash line in post-supply dealings.
AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB May-28 Auction Results
Mar-31 00:03
The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$600mn of the 2.25% 21 May 2028, issue #TB149:
- Average Yield (%): 3.6498 (prev. 3.5038)
- High Yield (%): 3.6525 (prev. 3.5050)
- Bid/Cover: 4.4250x (prev. 3.5400x)
- The amount allotted at the highest accepted yield as a percentage of the amount bid at that yield (%): 72.4 (prev. 96.4)
- Bidders 37 (prev. 32), successful 11 (prev. 12), allocated in full 7 (prev. 7)
