US TSYS: Cash Bonds Cheaper Ahead Of ADP Employment Data & Trump Tariffs

Oil prices are higher during today’s APAC trading but are off their intraday high coinciding with the US dollar rising from its lows. The market realises that a peace in Ukraine that allows sanctions on Russian energy to be eased is a long way off after the difficult meeting at the White House. WTI is up 0.6% to $70.18/bbl after reaching $70.60 earlier, while Brent is 0.6% higher at $73.21/bbl following a high of $73.67. The USD index is still down 0.2%. 

• Europe is planning ways to fund an increase in defence spending and appears to have the start of a proposal for a one-month sea and air ceasefire in Ukraine. According to UK PM Starmer there is a “coalition of the willing” with countries offering forces as peacekeepers.
• Crude has been alternating between being concerned about the negative impact of increased protectionism on global demand and the possible effect on supplies. Bloomberg reports that around 80% of the US’ oil imports could be at risk from trade and sanctions policies. 10% tariffs on purchases of energy from Canada and Mexico are due to be imposed on Tuesday.
• News from the Global Times today said that China is considering its options with the US vowing to add an extra 10% tariff on imports from China also from Tuesday. US agricultural products may be targeted and both tariff and non-tariff measures are being examined. 

RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 6bps softer today. 

• Today’s move leaves pricing mixed versus pre-RBNZ policy decision levels. While pricing for the April meeting is 2bps firmer, meetings from May to November are 4-9bps softer.
• Currently, 26 bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 74bps by November 2025.

Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Today vs. Pre-RBNZ (%)

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

• Tsys futures are trading lower today, although within Friday's ranges, volumes are high, however this is largely linked to roll activity, with no notable tsys flows to note, there was however a large buyer in fed funds April 25 futures, 95.685 in 34k. TU is -01 at 103-14+, while TY is trading -02 at 111-01 and now -09 from Friday's highs.
• Cash tsys curves are slightly steeper, with yields 2-3bps cheaper. The 2yr is +2bps at 4.009%, while the 10yr is the worst performing across the curve +2.7bps at 4.235%. The 2s10s is +0.6bps at 22.128.
• Earlier, Zelenskiy expressed willingness to meet Trump for a constructive dialogue to address serious issues, following a tense White House encounter and emphasized Ukraine’s readiness to finalize a minerals deal with the US that was recently paused. Speaking in London on Sunday after a European security summit, Zelenskiy underscored the need for equal dialogue, avoided an apology for prior friction, and defended Ukraine’s dignity while affirming openness to any cooperative format with the US.
• later today we have S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI & ISM data