US DATA: CARTS Implies Weaker Core Retail Sales In January, Momentum Still Solid
The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)'s preliminary estimate for January ex-auto reta...
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SOFR: BLOCK: Flurry SOFR Bundle Crosses
Several Blocks went up in the last few minutes (1343:15ET to 1353:50ET), likely swap-tied buying related:
- 17,500 SFRH7 1Y bundles (SFRH7 to SFRZ7) +0.020
- 5,000 SFRU7 1Y bundles (SFRU7 to SFRM8) +0.030
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19
- RES 2: 0.8739 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8703 Low Dec 30
- PRICE: 0.8667 @ 15:26 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
A sharp sell-off in EURGBP on Monday confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and an extension of the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that moving average studies have crossed and are in a bear mode position highlighting a stronger bear cycle - for now. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8739, the 50-day EMA.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Over $32B to Price Wednesday
At least $32.45B corporate debt issued/to price Wednesday. Still waiting on BNP Paribas and Mutual of Omaha, see below:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/07 $4.5B *Quebec 5Y SOFR+45
- 01/07 $3.5B #Turkiye +2B 7Y 6.35%, $1.5B 12Y 6.9%
- 01/07 $2.6B #Toyota Motor Cr $750M 2Y +32, $600M 2Y SOFR+45, $750M 5Y +52, $500M 10Y +67
- 01/07 $2.25BB #BFCM $1.5B 5Y +85, $750M 10Y +97
- 01/07 $2B *BNG Bank 10Y SOFR+54
- 01/07 $2B #Bank of Hapoalim $1B 3.5Y +120, $1B 7Y +135
- 01/07 $2B #T-Mobile USA $1.15B 10Y +87, $850M 30Y +103
- 01/07 $1.8B #Rabobank $400M 2Y +28, $500M 2Y SOFR+41, $500M 5Y +47, $400M 5Y SOFR+70
- 01/07 $1.5B *Kommunalbanken 5Y SOFR+38
- 01/07 $1.1B #Bank of Montreal 6NC5 +75
- 01/07 $1B *Council of Europe (CoE) Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+31
- 01/07 $1B #Daimler Truck NA $600M 3Y +67, $400M +5Y +83
- 01/07 $1B #Niagara Mohawk Power $650M 10Y +97, $350M 2055 tap +107
- 01/07 $1B *Riyad Bank 10NC5 +210
- 01/07 $1B #Aldar 30.25NC7.25 5.95%
- 01/07 $1B *AIIB 10Y SOFR+43
- 01/07 $850M #Rep of Chile +5Y +68
- 01/07 $750M *First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) 5Y +60
- 01/07 $600M #Met Tower 3Y +52
- 01/07 $500M *FMO 2.5Y SOFR+25
- 01/07 $500M #Banco Actinver WNG 12Y +155
- 01/07 $Benchmark Mutual of Omaha 5Y +85
- 01/07 $Benchmark BNP Paribas 8NC7 +102
- Expected Thursday:
- 01/08 $Benchmark OKB 5Y SOFR+37a
- 01/08 $Benchmark CAF 10Y SOFR+90a
