TRANSPORTATION: Carnival; 30s +60bps/-2pts

GBP STIRs little changed vs. late Friday levels.

• BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more dovish across ’25 meetings, showing 20bp of cuts through May, 26bp through June and 54.5bp through year-end. We still look for a cut in May at this stage.
• SONIA futures flat to +3.5.
• The latest KPMG-REC report on jobs provided another warning sign when it comes to the health of the UK labour market.
• Permanent salary growth posted its lowest seasonally adjusted reading for four years, with "weaker demand for staff, improved candidate numbers and tighter budgets" all cited as reasons. Hiring continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in January with "recruiters frequently commenting that redundancies had expanded the pool of available workers."
• That helps explain some of the cross-market outperfromance vs. EUR STIRs.
• Friday’s monthly economic activity data headlines this week’s UK calendar, with the latest BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey also due to be released on the same day.

Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation momentum (3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate using Stats Norway data) accelerated to 4.03% in February, up from 3.51% in January and 3.10% in December. It’s the fourth consecutive acceleration, coming at a time when Norges Bank is gearing up to begin its easing cycle. Nordea have removed their call for a March cut following the data.

• Sequential SA CPI-ATE prices rose 0.61% M/M, the firmest reading since October 2023. On an NSA basis, prices rose 0.99% M/M (vs 0.5% cons).
• Annual CPI-ATE inflation was 3.43% Y/Y (vs 2.9% cons, 2.7% Norges, 2.82% prior).
• Services inflation accelerated to 4.04% Y/Y (vs 3.19% prior), driven by ex-rent categories (3.77% vs 3.36% prior). Rents also ticked up to 4.25% (vs 4.18% prior). Statistics Norway notes that restaurants, communications and some transport services were important drivers here. Air travel can often be volatile, while boat fares were sharply higher on a base effect (prices fell 18.8% M/M last February due to a government policy). As such, there may be some reversal next month.
• Food prices were also seasonably strong, rising 7.49% Y/Y (vs 4.96% prior). Similar upside in food prices was likely seen in Sweden in February.
• Meanwhile, imported goods remain well-above Norges Bank projections at 1.11% (0.3% Norges, 1.21% prior).
• Headline inflation was 3.55% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons and Norges, 2.35% prior). Base effects saw electricity inflation at 7.1% Y/Y.

The USD and e-minis are lower after U.S. President Trump pointed towards a period of economic transition, failing to rule out a recession.

• The BBDXY got close to Friday’s multi-month low in Asia hours, before USD bears lost intraday momentum, allowing a recovery. E-minis are also off lows but still sit ~0.5% softer on the day.
• NOK the G10 FX outperformer in the wake of the firmer-than-expected domestic CPI data. NOK/SEK moves further away from ’20 lows, which provided support during last week’s sell off.
• USD/JPY got near Friday’s lows but failed to break below 147.00 before retracing to 147.70.
• Cable threatened a clean break above Friday’s peak during the initial round of USD weakness, but bulls ultimately failed to force the pair meaningfully higher after registering the highest level seen since November (1.2946). GBP is now lower vs. all G10 peers.
• New York Fed inflation expectations data is due today, as is the ECB’s survey of monetary analysts.
• We will also hear from ECB’s Nagel.
• Further out, U.S. CPI data (Wednesday) headlines this week’s macro calendar, with the ECB’s Watchers conference also eyed.