REAL ESTATE: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (AREIT: A3) Moving

• "My concerns are captured in part by the ‘upside’ inflation scenario presented in Box A of the May MPR. This scenario associates a stronger-than-embodied-in-the-baseline-forecast outlook for CPI inflation with a combination of: (a) second-round effects stemming from the energy price induced ‘blip’ of headline inflation to 3½% over the summer; and (b) weaker labour productivity growth, which weighs on potential aggregate supply and increases unit labour costs."
• "I have sympathy with both elements of the scenario."
• "But my concerns go beyond these risks. The scenarios published in the MPR are useful not just because they help to illustrate some of my concerns, but also because they serve to delineate where I have additional concerns that run beyond what is presented in the MPR."

• "While progress with disinflation is a signal that monetary policy restriction can be removed over time, progress with disinflation is also a signal that monetary policy  restriction is working – and as long as disinflation back to target is not complete, maintenance of some restriction will still be required. On my reading, that is a view that is held across a broad swathe of MPC members"
• "my sense is that Bank Rate plateaued at slightly too low a level in 2023, and the MPC started cutting Bank Rate slightly too early in 2024. To compensate, my starting point is that the pace of Bank Rate reduction should be “cautious”, running slower than the 25bp per quarter we have implemented since last August."
• "That requires a ‘skip’ in that quarterly pattern at some point. And I decided that the May meeting was an appropriate moment for that ‘skip’"
• Note that Pill using the word "cautious" rather than "careful" is not new. He used this word in his last major speech in February - and it is used by the MPC as a stronger word than "careful".

OAT Block trade, suggest seller:

• OATM5 ~2.43k at 125.11.