EU CREDIT SUPPLY: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) : IPT
Market Sources CIBC EUR Benchmark 4.5NC3.5 FXD Senior bail-in - IPTs MS+90bps area -------------...
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US TSY FUTURES: TUH6 Sold
Recent trade in TUH6 sees ~4K given at 104-11.375 over several clips.
STIR: 20% Odds Of ECB Hike Priced For '26
EUR STIRs hold the dovish adjustment that came after ECB Executive Board member Schnabel provided greater direct context about her comfort with markets pricing the next ECB move as a rate hike late on Monday.
- As a reminder, Schnabel told a FAZ podcast that "at the moment, no interest rate increase is to be expected in the foreseeable future... I didn’t say that interest rates should be raised...but rather that they shouldn’t be lowered again. That’s a very important distinction" (as quoted by Bloomberg).
- Post-decision ECB Governing Council communique has reaffirmed the idea that policy settings are “in a good place”.
- Accordingly, the bar to a policy move in either direction looks to be high at present. Markets lean in favour of the next move being a hike, but not until 2027 at the earliest.
- ECB-dated OIS is little changed, calling time on the easing cycle and showing ~5bp of tightening for ’26 vs. ~6.5bp early yesterday.
- Euribor futures flat to +5.0 ERZ6 is 8.0 off month-to date lows but comfortably within the range witnessed over the past couple of weeks. ERH6/H7 is 7.5 off month-to-date highs, once again operating comfortably within the range seen since the initial round of hawkish repricing that followed Schnabel’s comments.
- Little of note on the EUR macro calendar in the run up to Christmas, which will leave focus on inputs from the U.S. and wider cross-market swings.
- A reminder that tomorrow will see an early close for Euribor futures and options (settlement window 12:05-12:15 London, close 12:15 London).
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR (bp) |
Feb-26 | 1.937 | +0.5 |
Mar-26 | 1.929 | -0.3 |
Apr-26 | 1.923 | -0.9 |
Jun-26 | 1.913 | -1.9 |
Jul-26 | 1.918 | -1.5 |
Sep-26 | 1.933 | +0.1 |
Oct-26 | 1.953 | +2.1 |
Dec-26 | 1.981 | +4.9 |
USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Support
- RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 3: 1.3913 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3854 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3806 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.3730 @ 08:15 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 1.3728 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
- SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact. The pair has pierced support at 1.3730, the Sep 17 low and a short-term bear trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3854, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.
