FOREX: Canadian Dollar Outperforms as BOC Easing Expectations Trimmed
- Some volatile two-way swings for equities had little effect on major currencies Friday, and the USD index looks set to close at unchanged levels on the session, modestly positive on the week. USDJPY remained its volatile self, posting a near 100 pip range across US trade, but broadly consolidates around the 144 handle as we approach the weekend.
- EURUSD has exhibited a stable tone, and the solid bounce from 1.12 on Thursday keeps bullish conditions firmly in play for the pair. On the upside, a break of 1.1419, the May 26 high, would be a bullish development and bolster the underlying trend.
- The most notable strength has been for the Canadian dollar, following a robust set of GDP data across the first quarter and an associated trimming of cut expectations for next week’s BOC. Market pricing now assigns just a ~20% chance of a cut, compared to ~28% prior to today's data.
- Price action backs up the underlying bear trend for USDCAD (-0.64%) - through which a sell-on-rallies theme clearly persists. Barring the corrective bounce earlier in the week, the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3643 next, the Oct 9 2024 low. A phase of USD sales into the Friday month-end fix may have assisted this dynamic. Below here, attention will be on 1.3579, the 1.5 projection of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- Swiss GDP and final eurozone PMIs kick off the economic calendar on Monday, before the focus turns to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Fed Chair Powell is also delivering opening remarks at a conference in Washington.
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USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 148.27 High Apr 9
- RES 3: 146.87 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 146.54 Low Mar 11
- RES 1: 144.06 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 142.80 @ 16:41 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 ‘23
The bounce in USDJPY that started Apr 22 is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.06, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 146.87. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.
TARIFFS: US Contacting China Re Tariffs Via Multiple Channels, Per Report
MNI (NEW YORK) - Making the rounds now on Bloomberg is the headline "US Has Reached Out to China for Tariff Talks, CCTV Says". The report underlying the headline was out closer to an hour ago based on the timestamp in the Weibo account post in question which is affiliated with China official media. Unclear whether this has helped the risk-on bid in equities over the last 20 minutes.
- Per the social media post (Google-translated - link here): "the US has taken the initiative to contact China through multiple channels, hoping to negotiate with China on the issue of tariffs", with the author citing sources.
US: More Than 50% Of Americans Believe US Is On Wrong Track'
55.6% of Americans report that the US is on the "wrong track", a reversal of the positive response to the first two weeks of the Trump administration, according to data fro Decision Desk HQ.
- The trackers shows that the turnaround in sentiment appears to correlate with Trump's initial tariff announcements in the first week on February and then accelerated following the announcement of Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs on April 2.
- The return of sentiment to levels during the Biden administration is another warning sign for the Trump administration that US voters are sceptical of Trump's handling of the economy. The flagging public support of administration policy is likely to weigh heavily on Republican lawmakers ahead of crucial votes in Congress on Trump's expansive tax and spending agenda.
Figure 1: Right Track/Wrong Track
Source: DDHQ
