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• Equities pared losses that were initially seen on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell around December rate cut prospects, despite little sign of a reversal of the swift sell off in rates.
• S&P 500 futures trade at 6921 for a ~15pt decline since the FOMC decision but are off earlier lows of 6882.25, limiting the day’s decline to -0.1%.
• They remain close to earlier fresh record highs of 6952.00, close to projected resistance at 6953.25 (2.00 proj of Aug 1-15-20 price swing).
• Nvidia sees large gains of 3.0% as it becomes the first company to top a $5tn market cap. Google follows with a 2.4% gain in what’s been a muted session on net for the remainder of the Magnificent Seven.
• Caterpillar shares are a notable mention as well, jumping 12% in the biggest one-day gain since 2009 after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings on surging demand for its power-generation equipment.
• S&P 500 gains were led by IT (+1.1%), communication services (+1.0%) and energy (+0.8%), whilst losses were concentrated in real estate (-2.7%), consumer staples (-2.0%) and materials (-1.8%).
• Released after the close, Alphabet posted solid looking results, with a Q3 EPS of $2.87 vs estimates of $2.26 and Q3 revenue of $102.35bn vs an estimated $99.85bn. Microsoft meanwhile saw revenue of $77.67bn vs an estimate $75.55bn.
• E-mini comparison: S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq 100 (+0.4%), Dow Jones (-0.2%) and Russell 2000 (-1.0%)

• RES 4: 181.07 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.23 High Oct 27 / Record High  
• PRICE: 177.32 @ 16:29 GMT Oct 29
• SUP 1: 176.13 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.53 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart 

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Resistance and the bull trigger at 177.94, the Oct 10 high has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. 178.94, a Fibonacci projection, is the next key upside level. First support to watch lies at 176.13, the 20-day EMA. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 174.53.   

• Treasuries have continued to extend losses after a hawkish Powell injected some uncertainty around a December rate cut.
• It leaves a solid bear flattening on the day, with yields 7-11.5bp higher on the day.
• 2Y yields have hit 3.604% (+11.6bp) for highs since the weak ADP report on Oct 1.
• They are through a 50d MA of 3.562% (equating to 104-07 in futures) that some might have been looking to fade off as the 2Y yield recovered from mid-October lows.
• 2s10s at 46.4bp (-2.4bp) has cleared September lows of 47.8bp for lows since ~40bp in late July.
• TYZ5 has dipped to a latest session low of 112-25 (-22) as it tests latest support at 112-27 (50-day EMA). Firm clearance could open 112-16+ (Oct 10 low).
• Swap spreads meanwhile have pared some of their initial decline on the FOMC announcement to QT changes, with the 10Y swap spread at -43.5bp vs lows of -44bp and -42.9bps pre-decision. They're still relatively close to yesterday’s -42bp at what was the highest since March.