CANADA DATA: Canada Q1 GDP Annualized +2.2%; Domestic Demand Falls
May-30 12:30
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- Canada Q1 annualized GDP +2.2%, above Bank of Canada's forecast for +1.8%. Increase driven by exports of goods and inventory accumulation suggesting stockpiling amid U.S. tariff threats. Imports and weaker residential resales moderated growth.
- StatsCan said Friday final domestic demand fell for the first time since the end of 2023. Annualized final domestic demand -0.1% in Q1 after +5.2% in prior quarter. Household spending slowed to +1.2% vs prior +4.9%. Residential construction was also slower -11% from +17%.
- April advance GDP estimate +0.1% MOM driven by mining, quarrying and oil but this was partially offset by decline in manufacturing.
- March GDP expanded +0.1% in line with economist expectations after -0.2% in Feb. The growth driven by mining, quarrying, oil and gas sector +2.2% MOM as crude extraction resumed following disruptions.
- StatsCan lowered Q4 GDP to +2.1% from +2.6%.
- Last major release before BOC's rate decision June 4. Some economists expect the central bank to hold interest rates at 2.75% for a second time as core inflation is now above the BOC target band, others see a 25bp cut.
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CANADA Q1 FLASH ANNUALIZED GDP +1.5% lags BOC +1.8%; +0.4% QOQ
Apr-30 12:30
- CANADA Q1 FLASH ANNUALIZED GDP +1.5% LAGS BOC +1.8%; +0.4% QOQ
- CANADA FEB GDP -0.2% SLIGHTLY BELOW EXPECTED ON OIL, +1.6% YOY
CANADA DATA: Canada GDP Q1 Flash +1.5% Annualized Slightly Below BOC Estimates
Apr-30 12:30
- GDP by industry +1.5% annualized for Q1, Statistics Canada said Wednesday, slightly below Bank of Canada's +1.8% estimate in April Monetary Policy Report.
- StatsCan's advance forecast for March +0.1% MOM, putting QOQ growth +0.4%.
- Increase in March supported by mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction but gains were offset by decline in manufacturing and wholesale.
- Official Feb. GDP -0.2%, lower than the expected flat reading and following +0.4% in Jan.
- Drop in Feb largely driven by mining and oil and gas extraction, which contracted 2.8%. Bad weather and a collision in Newfoundland impacted offshore crude production.
- Coal mining -15%, largest monthly contraction since March 2022 as exports to Asia dropped. StatsCan said real estate fell 10% in Feb, the third straight decline. Industry sources have said tariff concerns hurt consumer confidence.
- Partially offsetting gains, autos +4.2%, suggesting U.S. stockpiling in anticipation of tariff action.
MNI:US Q1 EMPL COST INDEX 0.9% V Q4 0.9%
Apr-30 12:30
- MNI:US Q1 EMPL COST INDEX 0.9% V Q4 0.9%
- US Q1 EMPL COST INDEX Y/Y 3.6% V Q4 3.8%
- US Q1 BENEFIT PAYMTS 1.2% V Q4 0.8%; Q1 Y/Y 3.8%(Q4 3.6%)
