TARIFFS: Canada And Mexico Are Newly Included In 10% Tariffs, USMCA Unclear
To clarify Canada and Mexico are included in the 10% reciprocal tariffs, per CBC reporter Alexander Panetta on X.com:
@Alex_Panetta "What a curveball: White House tells us Canada and Mexico are also getting the 10% global tariff. This is new. So one-size-fits all. What we don't know yet: Whether the older tariffs on Canada and Mexico (autos, steel, aluminum, 'fentanyl') continue and get stacked onto this. Would be a wild detail if they did. Can't imagine they will. But the White House hasn't answered yet."
- One aspect that's unclear is whether USMCA carveouts are still in effect. Panetta continues: "Relevant detail: Trump's trade rep has just spent two days testifying on Capitol Hill about how USMCA is alive, as Canada and Mexico were spared the blanket tariff. Whoopsie! He was literally still testifying as the White House announced, um, a blanket tariff on Canada and Mexico." / FWIW -- this new 10% tariff on Canada and Mexico is so inconsistent with elements of the administration message today (USMCA lives; working with allies against China) that you have to wonder if they goofed the rollout and will walk it back
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EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- RES 1: 0.8419 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- PRICE: 0.8399 @ 16:13 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 0.8360/8328 Low Mar 6 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A strong rally in EURGBP last week highlights a clear short-term reversal. The cross is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The latest impulsive rally signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8328, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low. For now, a pullback would be considered corrective.
US: European Public Remains Supportive Of Ukraine
A “major new study” from More in Common, based on polling of 7,000 people across France, Germany, the UK, The US and Poland, has found that, “despite the breakdown in relations between Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Voldoymyr Zelenskyy, there remains strong public support for Europe to stand by Ukraine.”
- The report notes: “The poll found that while the British public tends to be even more supportive of Ukraine than their European counterparts, strong majorities in every nation surveyed believe Ukraine's defence is important to their country.”
- The polling report comes ahead of a crucial meeting between Ukrainian officials and a US delegation led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia where US officials intend to press Kyiv on accepting a ceasefire framework that can be presented to Moscow.
Figure 1: “Thinking about the war in Ukraine, how important is it for (your country) that Ukraine defends its sovereignty against Russian aggression?”
Source: More in Common
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading At Last Week’s Highs
- RES 4: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 1.2947 High Mar 10
- PRICE: 1.2904 @ 16:12 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 1.2768 Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: 1.2674 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2593 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a stronger uptrend. The pair is testing 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 1.2990, the Nov 8 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2593, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
