RUSSIA: Calls for CBR Currency Intervention to Support Russian Exporters
Sep-04 07:09
- The Russian president's envoy for relations with international organizations, Boris Titov, has called for CBR currency interventions to make Russian exports more competitive, Vedomosti report. He believes the optimal USD/RUB exchange rate for exporters would be in the 90-100 range compared to current levels around 80. The government is also concerned about the strong ruble as it reduces budget revenue, but “experts” cited by Vedomosti believe interventions should only be used to reduce volatility.
- Meanwhile, economists polled by the CBR expect it to cut its key interest rate by at least another 2ppts this year and now forecast that inflation will slow to 6.4% by the end of 2025. However, they have become less optimistic about economic growth and expect GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2025 instead of the 1.4% forecast in July, and still do not believe that inflation will slow to the targeted 4% in 2026. This morning, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said latest data shows that the Russian economy is cooling down faster than was expected earlier.
- Russian authorities are discussing proposals to stabilise the fuel market and curb price growth, Kommersant report. Proposals include redirecting some diesel fuel bound for export to the domestic market and tightening measures to combat automated trading systems, which can exacerbate short supply.
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BOE: MNI BOE Preview
Aug-05 07:05
For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.
- This week’s MPC meeting will be a major surprise if there is not a 25bp cut.
- The focus will instead be on the vote split, the tone of the press conference, any changes to assumptions in the scenarios and any signalling ahead of September’s QT decision.
- We look at all of these aspects in detail as well as summarising over 20 sell side reports and rounding up analyst views.
STIR: Vote Split In Focus At Thursday’s BOE Decision
Aug-05 07:05
The focus of Thursday’s BOE decision will be the vote split, given almost full discounting of and unanimous expectations for a 25bp cut. MNI’s BOE preview will be released in due course.
- BOE-dated OIS price 50bps of easing through year-end, with just over 75bps of cuts priced through June 2026.
- SONIA futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues, but remain well above pre-US NFP levels from Friday.
- We wrote yesterday that the SONIA/Euribor Dec '26 Spread has formed double bottom support in the 145.5/146bp area. With the market now more assured when it comes to pricing the ECB terminal rate (leaning towards one further 25bp cut in this cycle) any meaningful repricing is likely to come from the SONIA leg of the spread.
- UK final July services/composite PMIs are due at 0930BST, but are unlikely to be market moving.
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-25 | 3.983 | -23.5 |
| Sep-25 | 3.947 | -27.1 |
| Nov-25 | 3.791 | -42.7 |
| Dec-25 | 3.719 | -49.9 |
| Feb-26 | 3.601 | -61.7 |
| Apr-26 | 3.561 | -65.7 |
| Jun-26 | 3.482 | -73.6 |
| Jul-26 | 3.462 | -75.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
GILTS: Opening Calls
Aug-05 06:57
Gilt Calls, 92.64/92.69.
