SONIA: Call Fly buyer

OAT Block trade, suggest seller:

• OATM5 ~1.24k at 125.45.

The German chamber of industry and commerce (DIHK) remains rather pessimistic in their spring economic survey. "None of our indicators are positive. The economic upturn that we all want and that our country needs is not yet in sight" - overall, they see -0.3% GDP growth in Germany in 2025. 

• That is weaker than the government's forecast (0.0%), the joint economic forecast of a set of research institutes (-0.1%), and MNI's collation of sellside analysts (0.0%). The German economy grew 0.2% Q/Q in Q1, so some negative growth in the coming quarters would be implied in the DIHK view.
• The survey took place between the end of March and the end of April, capturing particularly elevated uncertainty stemming from US trade policies. However, whilst there has been some thawing in this uncertainty, levels are still high (as the below chart of the Bloomberg trade uncertainty index suggests) and 50% EU tariff threats could be highly damaging per Ifo scenarios noted earlier.
• The DIHK is an interest group for the commercial sector in Germany.

WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a reversal signal. Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.

• WTI Crude up $0.1 or +0.16% at $61.64
• Natural Gas down $0.07 or -2.1% at $3.264
• Gold spot down $43.41 or -1.3% at $3300.13
• Copper down $7.95 or -1.64% at $475.65
• Silver down $0.48 or -1.42% at $33.0085
• Platinum down $11.51 or -1.06% at $1079.6