SONIA: Call Condor buyer

• We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Inflation Insight.
• Please find the full report including MNI analysis and a range of analyst core PCE estimates here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Apr2025_6247605af4.pdf

• ERM5 98.00/98.12cs 1x1.5, sold the 1 at -0.5 in 6k.
• ERM5 97.75/97.87cs 1x1.5, bought the 2 for 4 in 6k.

Scandi FX outperform the G10 basket this morning, with temporary US tariff reprieve for electronic imports lending support to broader risk sentiment. EURSEK and EURNOK are each ~0.8% lower at typing. 

• Following the recent US tariff inspired market volatility, SEB highlight that "NOK trades at higher implied vols than peers across the smile, with downside protection
  more priced". They go on to note that "risk reversals confirm this, showing a stronger call bias in EURNOK and USDNOK vs SEK pairs".
• In EURSEK, last week’s low at 10.8812 provides initial support, while a close above 11.2000 will be required to signal an extension of the corrective bull cycle that began on April 4.
• Swedish money market participant 5-year ahead CPIF inflation expectations (released this morning) were steady at 2.3% in April, with PES unemployment data due on Wednesday. Main focus will be on tomorrow’s Spring budget bill (0700BST/0800CET), for which SEK11.5bln of expansionary measures have already been announced.
• EURNOK hovers just above the 12.0000 handle, which provides initial support before the prior breakout level of 11.8371 (March 5 high). Last Friday’s high of 12.2223 provides initial resistance.
• Light Norwegian calendar this week, with domestic markets closed from Wednesday afternoon for Easter.