US NATGAS: California Natgas Fundamentals

Nov-21 17:27

California demand is steady despite warmer-than-normal weather, with a deeper system imbalance driven by weaker Rockies and Permian/San Juan inflows while Mexican exports edge higher

  • California week ahead weather forecasts are calling for warmer than normal weather. California cumulative HDDs increased by 0.07 compared with the prior forecast.
  • LA cumulative HDDs count for the next 5 days is 41.74, up 3.99 days from the 10-year normal, while the count for the next 14 days is 0, up 23.01 days from the 10-year normal.
  • San Francisco cumulative HDDs count for the next 5 days is 0, down 4.43 days from the 10-year normal, while the count for the next 14 days is 5.99, down 5.93 days from the 10-year normal.
  • The California imbalance is -1.3 Bcf/d today, 0.22 Bcf/d longer than yesterday and 1.66 Bcf/d shorter than last week.
  • California demand is 6.77 Bcf/d today, down 0.42 Bcf/d from yesterday and up 1.05 Bcf/d from last week.
  • Permian/San Juan inflows are 2.5 Bcf/d today, down 0.02 Bcf/d from yesterday and down 0.1 Bcf/d from last week.
  • Rockies inflows are 1.6 Bcf/d today, down 0.22 Bcf/d from yesterday and down 0.37 Bcf/d from last week.
  • Inflows from the PNW are 1.7 Bcf/d today, up 0.02 Bcf/d from yesterday and down 0.26 Bcf/d from last week.
  • Mexican exports reached 0.3 Bcf/d today, up 0.02 Bcf/d from yesterday and up 0.12 Bcf/d from last week.
  • All fundamentals data is BNEF. Current figures as of publishing.

Historical bullets

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: GM Financial, Softbank Launched

Oct-22 17:15
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 10/22 $2B #Softbank $900M 35.5NC5.5 7.625%, $1.1B 40NC10 8.25% (includes E750M 37NC7)
  • 10/22 $1.5B #Alberta 10Y SOFR+81
  • 10/22 $1B Rep of Korea WNG 5Y +17
  • 10/22 $1B #GM Financial 3Y +78
  • 10/22 $Benchmark Dominican Republic 10Y 6.0%
  • 10/22 $Benchmark Pershing Square 7Y investor calls

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 20Y Bond Auction

Oct-22 17:04

Treasury futures gain slightly (TYZ5 113-24 +0.0) after $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810UN6) stopped through - drawing a high yield of 4.506% vs 4.517% WI at the cutoff; 2.73x bid-to-cover vs. 2.74x prior.

  • Peripheral stats: indirect take-up dips to 63.63% vs. 64.6% prior; direct bidder take-up 26.33% from 27.9% prior; primary dealer take-up rises to 10.04% vs. 7.5% prior.

FED: US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.506%; ALLOT 56.07%

Oct-22 17:02
  • US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.506%; ALLOT 56.07%
  • US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 10.04% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 26.33% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 63.63% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: BID/COV 2.73