US NATGAS: Cali Natgas Fundamentals Lean Bullish
Cali’s natgas fundamentals are leaning bearish amid rising end-user demand and a drop in pipeline flows.
- Total state-wide demand in California is 5.35bcf/d, up by around 0.35bcf/d. Demand is 0.67 bcf/d, or 14.3% above the 30-day average.
- End user demand is up 353 mcf/d to 4.59 bcf/d. This compares to the 30-day average of 3.94 bcf/d.
- Cali state-wide CDDs for the next 14 days are 33 above normal. LA's CDDs for the next 14 days are 48 above normal. San Francisco's CDDs for the next 14 days are 12 below normal.
- Net natural gas inflows to California via pipeline stood at 5.79bcf/d, down by around 0.1bcf/d on the day. Pipeline inflows are 0.03bcf/d above the 30-day average.
- Total pipeline receipts into Socal are down today by 47 mmcf/d. Receipts from pipelines into Socal from the Desert Southwest are down by 42 mmcf/d, while flows via Kern River (Rockies) are down by 5 mmcf/d today.
- Pipeline flows into Malin are down by 53 mmcf/d today.
- Exports to Mexico are 2.7% lower today at 0.44bcf/d. This is in line with the 30-day average.
- All demand, supply, and pipeline flows data is from Bloomberg at the time of publishing and is subject to updates throughout the day.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.8500 @ 16:28 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 0.8482 Low April 30
- SUP 2: 0.8477/60 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP was sold off a mid-session rally, keeping the technical picture intact and highlighting a continuation of the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8460. It is still possible that the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A reversal and a resumption of gains would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage jumps to $250.601B this afternoon from $157.537B yesterday. So far this year, usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B. The number of counterparties climbs to 54 from 37 yesterday.
PIPELINE
CAD: USDCAD At Session Lows On Trump-Carney Meetup Prospects
USDCAD dips to session lows of 1.3788 after US President Trump says that PM Carney will visit the White House within the next week, after Carney - as Trump put it - said "let's make a deal". Yesterday Carney said post-election that he'd speaking to Trump and the two had agreed to meet soon but this adds to the certainty and suggests Trump is positively disposed to a thawing in relations.
- It's now outperforming most G10 peers, down 0.32% on the day in CAD's favor, and nearing 1.3781 - Apr 21 low (which was the lowest since Oct 2024) and the bear trigger per our tech analyst - beyond there, potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement.
