US NATGAS: Cali Natgas Daily Fundamentals
Jun-27 17:57
Total state-wide demand in California is 4.54bcf/d, down by around 0.24bcf/d. Demand is 0.2 bcf/d, or 4.2% below the 30-day average.
- End user demand is down 243 mcf/d to 3.78 bcf/d. This compares to the 30-day average of 3.99 bcf/d.
- Cali state-wide CDDs for the next 14 days are 19 above normal. LA's CDDs for the next 14 days are 61 above normal. San Francisco's CDDs for the next 14 days are 8 below normal.
- Net natural gas inflows to California via pipeline stood at 5.17bcf/d, up by around 0.26bcf/d on the day.
- Total pipeline receipts into SoCal are up today by 207 mmcf/d. Receipts from pipelines into SoCal from the Desert Southwest are up by 127 mmcf/d today , while receipts via Kern River (Rockies) are up by 80 mmcf/d.
- Net receipts into Malin are down by 30 mmcf/d today.
- Exports to Mexico are 3.9% higher today at 0.47bcf/d. This compares to the 30-day average of 0.45 bcf/d.
- All demand, supply, and pipeline flows data is from Bloomberg at the time of publishing and is subject to updates throughout the day.
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BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Yields Continue To Back Up
May-28 17:55
European yields backed up Wednesday, continuing their rise from Tuesday's lows, with Gilts underperforming Bunds.
- A soft long-end Japanese bond auction overnight set a weaker tone for global core FI early.
- In data, ECB 1-year ahead inflation expectations surprisingly rose but longer-term expectations were steady, muting the impact.
- On the day, the UK curve leaned bear steeper to the 10Y segment, with 30Y outperforming. The German curve more clearly bear steepened.
- BTPs led broader gains in much of the session, with 10Y yields falling to the lowest levels since February. 10-year EGB periphery/semi-core spreads tightened 0.3-1.0bps vs Bunds on the day.
- Thursday's calendar includes an appearance by BOE's Bailey; in data we get Spanish retail sales, and Italian confidence indicators and industrial sales.
- Attention for the week is on Friday's flash May inflation readings from Germany, Italy and Spain.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany:
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 1.797%, 5-Yr is up 1.4bps at 2.107%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.554%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 3.031%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 5.5bps at 4.075%, 5-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.206%, 10-Yr is up 6.1bps at 4.727%, and 30-Yr is up 4.5bps at 5.48%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.4bps at 98.1bps / French OAT down 0.5bps at 67.3bps
US: Trump's Approval On Economy/Trade/Inflation Strengthens
May-28 17:53
US President Donald Trump has seen his net approval rating on trade, the economy, and inflation all improve from lows seen in late-April, in reaction to a decrease in uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy.
- Silver Bulletin notes that Trump's approval rating on trade and the economy currently sits at roughly net-10%, with his approval on inflation substantially lower at -19.7%.
- The polling suggests that voters have upgraded their assessment of Trump's handling of key economic issues following a series of talks to dial down tensions with trading partners, particularly China.
- The positive reaction to Trump's tariff rapprochement may signal a more moderate trade policy as deadlines for the conclusion of tariff pauses on China and the EU approach.
Figure 1: Trump's Net Approval on Issues
Source: Silver Bulletin
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: RRP Takeup Jumps, Further Rises Expected To Be Limited
May-28 17:39
Takeup of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility jumped Wednesday, rising $35.6B to $173.6B, the second-highest total of the month ($180.4B May 19).
- ON RRP takeup has been somewhat erratic the last few sessions, though it's not expected to rise much past Wednesday's levels (ie remaining below $200B).
- One exception of course could be at the end of this week, given the typical temporary rise amid month-end dynamics.
