US NATGAS: Cali Daily Natgas Fundamentals
Jul-18 18:09
Total state-wide demand in California is 5 bcf/d, down by around 0.39 bcf/d. Demand is 0.05 bcf/d, o...
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FED: Economic Projections: Surprising Lack Of "Transitory"
Jun-18 18:05
The 2025 macroeconomic projection revisions were very close to expectations. GDP was revised down 3pp to 1.4% for 2025, with unemployment up 0.1pp to 4.4% and core PCE up 0.3pp to 3.1%.
- Less expected though not a huge surprise is the weaker GDP forecast for 2026, down 0.2pp to 1.6%, with 0.1pp higher unemployment to 4.5%.
- And Core PCE is also not seen returning to target through the 2027 horizon, which was also unexpected, potentially suggestive that the FOMC sees the current government policy mix's impact on inflation as not-quite-"transitory".
- See main variables below.
FED: FOMC Statement Comparison
Jun-18 18:03
FOMC statement comparison: https://media.marketnews.com/FOMC_Statement_Comparison_June_vs_May_ea52e6595b.pdf
US TSYS: Post-FOMC React
Jun-18 18:03
- Brief two-way trade after Fed holds rate steady, Treasury futures extending highs now
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently +13 at 111-08 vs. -05 high (10Y yld at 4.3416%), key resistance and its recent high of 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement.
- Curves steeper/off lows, 2s10s +1.103 at 44.386, 5s30s +2.004 at 91.816.
- Cross asset: Stocks firmer (SPX eminis +16 at 6054.5), Gold mildly near steady at 3388.05, Bbg US$ index dips lower at 1207.35 -1.72.
