EU FINANCIALS: Cajamar new issue and tender

Danske Bank recommend tactically paying the June ‘26 ECB meeting vs. receiving the Dec ‘25 and Dec ‘26 meetings on an ECB-dated OIS fly structure.

• They note that their “baseline is for the pricing of additional rate cuts from the ECB to move closer to zero as the economy has proven surprisingly resilient and downside risks to the outlook have faded. However, the prospects of inflation moving below 2% and wage indicators remaining soft also dampen the likelihood of the ECB kicking off rate hikes in late ‘26”.

• MNI: UK AUG MANUF PMI 47.0 (47.3 FLASH, 48.0 JUL)

• MNI: UK JUL M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0.1% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y