Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory wrote a thread on X : “It's not the tariffs. It's not the recession. It's not the tax cuts. These are just the catalysts, the vehicles through which the true enemy shows himself.”
- “I feel as strongly today as I did in 2008 that our true enemy has not yet revealed himself.”
- “I feel as strongly today as I did in 2008 that the ‘normal’ market discourse around recession and jobs and inventories acts as a distraction from the systemic risk that is manifesting itself.”
- “I feel as strongly today as I did in 2008 that to the degree systemic risk is being discussed, it is described as ‘well-contained’ by the US government even though we can all see with our own eyes that it is not contained at all.”
- “In 2008 the true enemy was the over-financialization of the US residential mortgage market, and the catalyst for the true enemy to wreak havoc in the global financial system was a sharp, universal decline in US home prices.”
- “In 2025 the true enemy is the over-financialization of the US Treasury market, and the catalyst for the true enemy to wreak havoc in the global financial system is a sharp, universal decline in the full faith and credit of the United States.”
- “The true enemy is uncompensated risk in the risk-free securities that have been financialized and levered across every substrate of the global system, uncompensated risk that comes from a diminishment of the full faith and credit of the United States.”
- https://x.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1919474733508178055