CZECHIA: Cabinet Talks Continue, Still No Clarity on Key Ministerial Roles

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.73 @ Close Sep 19
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:

• Fitch upgraded Italy to BBB+; Outlook Stable
• Moody's affirmed Poland at A2; Outlook changed to Negative from Stable
• S&P affirmed Ireland at AA; Outlook Positive
• Morningstar DBRS upgraded Cyprus to A, Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS downgraded France to AA, Trend Changed to Stable
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Norway at AAA, Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Finland at AA (high), Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed the United States of America at AAA, Stable Trend
• Scope Ratings affirmed the Czech Republic at AA-; Outlook Stable

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.14/82 20-day EMA / High Sep 11
• PRICE: 90.71 @ Close Sep 19
• SUP 1: 90.65 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

Gilt futures  gapped lower on Friday extending the pullback from recent highs. Despite the sell-off, a bull cycle remains intact and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support lies at 90.65, the Sep 5 low.