The opposition National Party won the by-election for the bellwether seat of Hamilton West by a large margin. The National candidate Potaka won 46.1% of the vote ahead of Labour on 30.2%, although turnout was low at 31.4%. The incumbent candidate Sharma was expelled from the Labour Party after he made accusations against the party and its leadership. The by-election results support the message from recent polls showing a drop in support for PM Ardern and her Labour Party and that the Nationals and their allies at this stage are likely to win the 2023 election.
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USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a new multi-month low. This tilts the balance further in favour of bears. A continuation lower signals scope for a test of 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, Thursday’s high.
Still weaker, Tsys near top end of session (and overnight range, for that matter) amid two-way positioning ahead the weekend. Light volumes (TYZ2<650k) due to Veterans Day/bank holiday despite full session hours on screen.
AUDUSD extended gains into the Friday close, confirming the clear break of the 50-day EMA. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started mid-October. Markets have also cleared 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a previous breakout level. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6768, a Fibonacci retracement level. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, Thursday’s low.